Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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760 FXUS65 KFGZ 082024 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 124 PM MST Sat Jun 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Near normal temperatures Sunday will trend back to 5 to 10 degrees above normal by Wednesday. Any isolated showers and thunderstorms will primarily impact portions of eastern Arizona Sunday into next week. && .DISCUSSION...Shifting ridge is providing some heat relief today and tomorrow. Meanwhile, the chance for isolated showers/high based thunderstorms has shifted east today. Satellite shows lots of cumulus development just over the state line, though an isolated shower over the Whites this afternoon can not be totally ruled out. Elevated PWATS (0.2-0.4) with a weak disturbance within the upper level flow will help bring precip chances back west Sunday...though chances are still low and mainly confined to the White Mountains. Some development near the Four Corners/Chuskas are also possible, though even lower in chance compared to the White Mountains. Everywhere else will see an uptick in mid and upper level clouds tomorrow afternoon. The first half of next work week will be characterized by light winds and warming temperatures once again. Returning high pressure combined with a low off Baja California will allow for moderating temperatures through the first half of next week, eventually allowing temperatures to return to 5-10 degrees above normal by Wednesday. With high pressure overhead, winds will slack. By the later half of next week, the low off the Baja Coast is currently expected to lift north as the ridge shifts. This will open the window for more isolated coverage in showers and high based thunderstorms primarily for the afternoons. Overall moisture availability will once again be low with this, so don`t bank on any meaningful moisture from this system. In reality, this will likely be another window to provide lightning started fires. && .AVIATION...Saturday 08/18Z through Sunday 09/18Z...VFR conditions persist. SW winds 10-20 with gusts 15-25 kts. Calm and variable winds overnight. OUTLOOK...Sunday 09/18Z through Tuesday 11/18Z...VFR conditions continue to persist. Expecting some high based TS activity near and southeast of KSOW Sunday afternoon and evening. Continued light winds overnight, becoming SW 10-20 with gusts 15-25 kts during the day. && .FIRE WEATHER...Sunday through Monday...Slightly cooler weather for Sunday before temperatures start warming Monday. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph and gusts as high as 30 mph Sunday, becoming much lighter Monday. Afternoon RHs in the mid teens to single digits both days. Tuesday through Thursday...Temperatures will continue warming Tuesday, peaking Wednesday with highs 5-10 degrees above normal once again. AFternoon winds will be increasing each afternoon, eventually becoming 10-20 mph sustained with gusts around 30 mph by Thursday, which combined with mid teen to single digits RHs would be elevated fire weather conditions. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...RKR AVIATION...RKR FIRE WEATHER...RKR For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff