377
FXUS65 KFGZ 232225
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
325 PM MST Thu May 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry, breezy weather continues across northern Arizona
through Saturday with the strongest winds and near critical fire
weather conditions expected Friday. Lighter winds and a noticeable
warming trend will arrive by Sunday, remaining through much of
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A trough to our north continues moving eastward
today and overnight. This trough will help a more elongated
shortwave trough progress across the region Friday and Saturday.
The area is expect to remain dry with precipitation well north of
Arizona. Breezy southwesterlies are expected to strengthen tomorrow
afternoon with this next system. Afternoon gusts of 30 to 40 mph
will impact much of northern Arizona. Near critical fire weather
is in the forecast, but conditions are just below Red Flag Warning
criteria with fuels borderline as well. Regardless, practice extra
caution during this windy period. Downwind/northeast locations
mainly along the Mogollon Rim will remain a bit breezy overnight.
The strongest winds will shift eastward on Saturday and are
anticipated to be a bit lighter than Friday. Pressure gradients
will gradually relax Saturday evening with more zonal, westerly
flow. However, this will be short lived with a ridge on the way.

Sunday Onward...The aforementioned trough will shift eastward on
Sunday and will be rapidly replaced by high pressure. Models are
in good agreement at this time that a upper-level ridge will begin
building over western CONUS, persisting through much of next week.
Sunny to mostly sunny skies and the climbing pressure will allow
temperatures to follow suit. Expect temperatures near to just
above average on Sunday with afternoon highs 5 to 8 degrees above
normal next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 23/18Z through Friday 24/18Z...MVFR conditions
possible in HZ/FU in vicinity of KCMR/KFLG as well as BLDU near
KINW. VFR conditions otherwise expected. Winds SW 10-20 kts with
gusts 20-30 kts before 03Z, then subsiding to 10 kts or less.

OUTLOOK...Friday 24/18Z through Sunday 26/18Z...Stronger SW winds
15-25 kts gusting 30-40 kts expected on Friday. Winds become more
WSW on Saturday at 15-20 kts with gusts up to 30 kts. Local areas
of HZ/FU possible as well as BLDU near and north of KINW.
Otherwise, VFR conditions continue.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tonight through Saturday...Dry and breezy weather
will continue into the coming weekend. Near critical fire weather
conditions will develop Friday and Saturday afternoon across the
Little Colorado River Valley. Minimum humidity each day will range
from 10-20% with the strongest winds gusting to 40 mph on Friday.

Sunday through Tuesday...Expect a warming and drying trend through
early next week while wind speeds decrease. Daytime humidity
will drop to 5-15% with west to southwest winds around 10-20 mph
each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Mazon
AVIATION...MCT
FIRE WEATHER...MCT

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff