Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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928 FXUS65 KFGZ 220935 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 235 AM MST Wed May 22 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Fair skies, seasonable temperatures, and periods of gusty southwest winds will continue through the week. && .DISCUSSION...Today...Zonal flow remains in place over Arizona today, keeping temperatures about the same as yesterday, maybe just a degree or two warmer. Dry and breezy conditions also remain, with afternoon breezes around 20-30 mph. Thursday through Saturday...A passing shortwave to the north on Thursday will lead to an uptick of southwesterly winds during the afternoon. Another trough looks to pass a bit closer to Arizona on Friday and Saturday, with peak gusts looking to be in the 35-45 mph range along and downwind of the terrain. While the winds will be strong enough to support critical fire weather, moisture looks to increase just enough to make RH less supportive and more marginal. Thus, conditions look to mainly be near-critical and largely only across the lower elevations. Sunday through Tuesday...High pressure makes a return for the second- half of the weekend, brining with it a return of lighter winds and continued dry conditions. Warm temperatures ensue as well, with afternoon highs by the start of next week likely near normal to even above normal by a few degrees. && .AVIATION...Wednesday 22/06Z through Thursday 23/06Z...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period, outside of reduced visibilities from HZ/FU due to prescribed burns. Light and variable winds will continue overnight, with SW winds 10-20 kts gusting near 25 kts in the afternoon. OUTLOOK...Thursday 23/06Z through Saturday 25/06Z...VFR conditions will persist through the outlook period, with periods of MVFR from HZ/FU due to prescribed burns. Expect SW winds 15-25 kts gusting 30-40 kts each afternoon, with lighter winds overnight. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Thursday...Look for dry conditions with mild temperatures. Expect southwest winds 5-15 mph gusting near 25 mph on today, becoming 10-20 mph gusting near 35 mph on Thursday. Minimum RH values between 8-18% each afternoon. Friday through Sunday...Dry conditions with gradually cooling temperatures through Saturday. Southwest winds with gusts 30-40 mph during the afternoon on Friday and Saturday, with lighter winds returning by Sunday. Minimum RH values 10-20% expected each afternoon. Near-critical fire weather conditions possible across the Little Colorado River Valley on Saturday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Humphreys AVIATION...Konieczny FIRE WEATHER...McCollum For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff