Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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864 FXUS65 KFGZ 240344 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 844 PM MST Thu May 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Dry, breezy weather continues across northern Arizona through Saturday with the strongest winds and near critical fire weather conditions expected Friday. Lighter winds and a noticeable warming trend will arrive by Sunday, remaining through much of next week. && .UPDATE...Winds are starting to drop off this evening. Some cloud development across the northern parts of the state are associated with a trough making its way to the east. Moisture is limited to the mid/upper levels and should remain as just clouds versus any type of precipitation reaching the ground. Areas where the clouds remain overnight will not be as efficient with radiational cooling, but overall tonight will be another cool night across the High Country. Most of the edits with the evening update were in the sky grids and adjusting the smoke/haze grids to better reflect where we saw prescribed burns today. Otherwise, the forecast looks to be right on track. && .PREV DISCUSSION /439 PM MST/...A trough to our north continues moving eastward today and overnight. This trough will help a more elongated shortwave trough progress across the region Friday and Saturday. The area is expect to remain dry with precipitation well north of Arizona. Breezy southwesterlies are expected to strengthen tomorrow afternoon with this next system. Afternoon gusts of 30 to 40 mph will impact much of northern Arizona. Near critical fire weather is in the forecast, but conditions are just below Red Flag Warning criteria with fuels borderline as well. Regardless, practice extra caution during this windy period. Downwind/northeast locations mainly along the Mogollon Rim will remain a bit breezy overnight. The strongest winds will shift eastward on Saturday and are anticipated to be a bit lighter than Friday. Pressure gradients will gradually relax Saturday evening with more zonal, westerly flow. However, this will be short lived with a ridge on the way. Sunday Onward...The aforementioned trough will shift eastward on Sunday and will be rapidly replaced by high pressure. Models are in good agreement at this time that a upper-level ridge will begin building over western CONUS, persisting through much of next week. Sunny to mostly sunny skies and the climbing pressure will allow temperatures to follow suit. Expect temperatures near to just above average on Sunday with afternoon highs 5 to 8 degrees above normal next week. && .AVIATION...Friday 24/00Z through Saturday 25/00Z...Mainly VFR conditions but smoke and haze may create pockets of MVFR conditions around KFLG and KCMR. Southwest winds gusting to 25 knots this evening will become light overnight before picking back up tomorrow. Gusts of 30 to 40 knots are possible after 19Z. OUTLOOK...Saturday 25/00Z through Monday 27/00Z...Mainly VFR conditions continue. On Saturday, southwest winds at 15 to 25 knots with gusts of 25 to 35 knots. On Sunday, southwest winds at 5 to 15 knots. && .FIRE WEATHER...Tonight through Saturday...Dry and breezy weather will continue into the coming weekend. Near critical fire weather conditions will develop Friday and Saturday afternoon across the Little Colorado River Valley. Minimum humidity each day will range from 10-20% with the strongest winds gusting to 40 mph on Friday. Sunday through Tuesday...Expect a warming and drying trend through early next week while wind speeds decrease. Daytime humidity will drop to 5-15% with west to southwest winds around 10-20 mph each day. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Meola/Mazon AVIATION...Benji FIRE WEATHER...MCT For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff