840
FXUS65 KFGZ 071703
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1003 AM MST Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Above normal temperatures will continue, although they
will peak today, with some cooling over the weekend. Any isolated
showers and thunderstorms will primarily impact portions of eastern
Arizona through Sunday. Another warming trend returns for the middle
of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...Weak wave moving around the ridge is moving east this
morning, having brought some light showers for parts of the
Mogollon Rim. That shower activity has diminshed this morning,
but will potentially reignite with daytime heating upping
instability closer to the Four Corners. Meanwhile, better lift and
instability already has convection ongoing over the White
Mountains. Activity their will be on and off throughout the day.
Hot weather still the main story and impact for the day with more
near record to record highs possible.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /419 AM MST/...The ridge across Arizona slowly
deamplifies heading into the weekend, but not before delivering
another hot/potentially record-setting day today. A weak trough
setting up along the West Coast will increase southwesterly flow,
especially today and will push our limited moisture sources
eastward. Chances for high-based convection continue for several
days, but really only affect the eastern zones of our CWA from
here on out.

Continued troughing into next week will eventually dry us out
completely, not that this is a "wet" pattern by any means, with
above normal temperatures persisting.

One more day of our EHW looks reasonable, but fire danger is also
something to think about as southwest winds increase for today. All
in all, much of the state will just see the next seven days as more
of the same.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 07/12Z through Saturday 08/12Z...VFR conditions
will mainly continue, outside of potential MVFR conditions near
KFLG due to smoke. Isolated TS/TSRA possible between 18Z-0Z along
and south of a KSOW-KSJN line. Elsewhere, dry conditions continue.
Look for SW winds 15-25 kts, gusty/erratic winds near storm
development. Lighter winds expected to return overnight.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 08/12Z through Monday 10/12Z...VFR conditions
expected to continue through the outlook period. Isolated TS/TSRA
possible across eastern Arizona, mainly Sunday afternoon. Look for
SW winds generally 5-15 kts, gusting near 20 kts each afternoon,
with lighter winds during the overnight periods.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Friday and Saturday...Hot and mostly dry conditions
are expected to continue. Isolated thunderstorms possible, mainly
across eastern Arizona. The main impacts will include gusty/erratic
winds and dry lightning, with low chances for wetting rains. Minimum
RH values generally between 5-15% both afternoon. Look for southwest
winds 15-25 mph today, becoming 10-20 mph on Saturday.

Sunday through Tuesday...Mostly dry and warm conditions. Isolated
thunderstorms possible across eastern AZ, with greatest chances on
Sunday. Minimum RH values will slowly drop each afternoon, generally
between 10-20%. Look for southwest winds 5-15 mph, gusting near 20
mph.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ this evening
for AZZ005-006-037.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RKR/Peterson
AVIATION...Konieczny
FIRE WEATHER...Meola

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff