854
FXUS64 KFWD 300958 AAB
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
458 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
No changes. Thank you, NWS for a great career and letting me
realize my dream. Keep doing what you do and protecting life and
property. We make a difference! God Bless.

05/Marty

Previous Discussion:
/End of The Week/

The unsettled pattern with a round of storms and locally heavy
rainfall primarily for North Texas this afternoon, possibly into
early evening NE counties. A brief reprieve occurs before another
MCS in northwest flow arrives overnight with similar impacts. The
third round you ask? Possibly late Friday morning or afternoon,
though this certainly looks more uncertain than the others. Highs
will be confined in the 70s/80s (which we`ll take this time of
year) with lows in the 60s to lower 70s.

------------------------------------------------------------

Now for the solemn, but also happy part...

With that said, this will be my final forecast discussion after 30
years in the NWS, 25 years of those a lead meteorologist. I will
always love love meteorology, forecasting, and the science. That
will never change! What I won`t miss is the 3 decades of rotating,
weekly shifts, some 6-7 days long. You throw in all the OT for
hazardous weather and it can take it`s toll on just about anyone.

I`ve especially enjoyed the outreach through the years as well
meeting and working along with so many great partners, especially
the EM community both young and old that I was honored to meet
through school talks, SKYWARN, and of course my favorite,
StormReady which I can`t understate the importance of these events.

However, it is time for me to gallop off into the sunset and to
new pastures in life and see where it takes me. I had the honor
of working in at 5 NWS offices(Brownsville TX, Goodland KS,
Spokane WA, Jackson MS, and here in Fort Worth the past 22 years)
and in 3 NWS regions(Southern, Central, and Western). I`ve had
many mentors through the years, some that are no longer with us
and have made so many connections and lifetime friendships with
colleagues throughout (you all know who you are) through those
offices, training workshops in Boulder CO, Kansas City MO, and
Atlanta GA, as well as region offices.

I write this with mixed emotions as I remember the first day in
Brownsville TX May 24th, 1994(happens to be my wife of 29 years
birthday as well). Throw in all the historic winter, tropical,
and tornadic/severe weather events I`ve part of with awesome
colleagues and meteorologists will always remain vivid in my mind
and NEVER fade and last my entire lifetime! I will miss you all,
you can bet on that. I wish you all the best in the future and
hope your memories of me are good ones! Have a great Summer and
rest of 2024 and beyond!

Sincerely,
05/Marty

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 305 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024/
/Friday Night Onward/

Showers and thunderstorms will shift south and east of the region
Friday night as the shortwave responsible for our late week
convection heads for the Mississippi Valley. A remnant surface
front will still linger near the Red River, however, providing a
focus for isolated thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. These storms
will be mainly along and north of the Highway 380 corridor, though
one or two could drift south to near I-20 before dissipating
Saturday evening. Large hail and damaging winds would be possible
with any of these storms given the strong instability and decent
amounts of deep layer shear available.

Additional thunderstorms will be possible Saturday night into
Sunday associated with dryline convection to our west. A weak
shortwave will help initiate thunderstorms across the TX South
Plains and western Concho Valley Saturday late afternoon and
evening in the vicinity of the dryline. Eastward propagation would
bring these storms into western portions of North and Central
Texas after midnight Saturday night, then through the I-35
corridor early Sunday morning. The highest severe weather threat
would be across the western zones where better instability will
exist, though a damaging wind concern may continue overnight if a
decent cold pool develops. Showers and storms will weaken with
the loss of the low level jet Sunday morning, but should
redevelop east of I-35 Sunday afternoon as instability increases.
All activity should dissipate while exiting to the east Monday
night.

The persistent mid level ridge centered over Mexico will expand
north through he southern Rockies during the first half of next
week, veering winds aloft to the northwest and eventually to the
north by Wednesday. This pattern will alternate the region between
hot and humid conditions associated with the ridge and rain cooled
air associated with thunderstorms dropping south from the Plains
into North and Central Texas. Timing is a bit uncertain, but the
latest guidance indicates one storm complex arriving MOnday night,
with another sometime on Wednesday. Damaging winds would likely be
the primary threat in each case. The ridge will expand east after
Wednesday, possibly shutting down convective weather and heating
things up for the latter half of next week.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
Update:
/12z TAFs/

MVFR cigs now moving into the eastern D10 and near Waco as well,
so no real changes there. The only change below will be to bring
first round of VCTS in 2-3 hours sooner, as NW TX activity appears
to be "cold pooling" again with CAMs catching on to that, so more
likely a 16z-17z start instead of 20z. My last aviation shift, so
to all my colleagues, thanks for the collaboration through the
years.

05/

Previous Discussion:
/06z TAFs/

The primary challenges remain timing of morning MVFR/IFR
conditions, then timing a couple rounds of strong to severe TSRA.
One round will be around 21z, with the other arriving near 06z.
VFR cigs may not return until just before the first round of
storms by/after 18z. Otherwise, SE winds around 10 kts will
prevail.

05/Marty

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    86  69  80  71  85 /  60  80  70  40  40
Waco                84  70  80  71  85 /  50  70  80  30  40
Paris               83  66  80  68  83 /  60  70  80  50  40
Denton              83  67  79  68  85 /  70  80  70  30  40
McKinney            84  67  79  70  84 /  70  70  80  40  40
Dallas              85  69  80  71  86 /  60  80  70  40  40
Terrell             83  68  79  70  83 /  60  70  80  40  40
Corsicana           84  71  79  71  85 /  60  60  80  40  40
Temple              85  71  81  71  85 /  40  70  70  30  30
Mineral Wells       82  68  78  69  85 /  50  70  70  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$