Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
917 FXUS64 KFWD 280102 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 802 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Tonight through Tuesday Night/ Thunderstorms continue across parts of North and Central TX this evening in an extremely unstable airmass posing mainly a very large hail and damaging wind threat. The convection has developed along a retreating theta-e boundary which is easily seen in regional dewpoint temperatures draped generally along I-20. To the south of this boundary, mixed layer CAPE has exceeded 5000 J/kg but low level winds are notably weak which will limit any tornado threat into the late evening hours. Convection should decrease in coverage through the late evening, however, an uptick in thunderstorms is expected later tonight as an area of warm advection develops coinciding with a strengthening low level jet. This activity should primarily be elevated, but ample instability will support a large hail threat well into the overnight and early morning hours on Tuesday. This focused area of isentropic ascent should generally extend from the Metroplex northward into southern Oklahoma, but coverage of storms is a little uncertain. We`ll keep PoPs at 20% through the remainder of the evening and raise them to 30-50% after 3 am across far North Texas and parts of Texoma. The extent of the morning convection will likely impact late afternoon/evening activity on Tuesday, but it appears that we`ll see at least some lull across the region Tuesday afternoon. That being said, afternoon heating will again result in a strongly unstable airmass across North Texas. Thunderstorms will develop across West Texas by late afternoon aided by weak ascent from a passing shortwave embedded in the northwest flow aloft. These storms should eventually grow upscale into a fairly large MCS that is currently forecast to move through North Texas Tuesday evening/night. Damaging winds would be the primary threat with this activity. Dunn && .LONG TERM... /Issued 312 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024/ Update: The forecast trends discussed below generally remain on track, therefore no significant changes were made to the previous forecast. The first in a series of weak shortwaves/perturbations embedded in the W/NW flow aloft will shift over a High Plains dryline on Tuesday. The resulting thunderstorm complex will carry primarily a damaging wind threat as these storms progress east/southeast into our area during the late afternoon and evening hours on Tuesday. There will also be a threat for isolated instances of large hail, particularly south I-20 and west of I-35. This repetitive pattern of passing disturbances and daily storm chances will continue through the end of the week. Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall will likely lead to an increasing flood threat, especially given vulnerable soils due to recent rainfall. This unsettled pattern is likely to continue through the upcoming weekend as the weakening upper ridge shifts to the east late week. In its wake, a series of shortwave troughs riding around the upper low over the Gulf of Alaska will eject across the northern Rockies keeping our pattern somewhat amplified. 12 Previous Discussion: /Tuesday Evening and Beyond/ An active northwest flow pattern will set up over North and Central Texas by midweek as the region becomes sandwiched between a developing ridge over portions of the Desert Southwest/northern Mexico and troughing over the Great Lakes region. An initial shortwave perturbation looks to shift over a sharpening dryline late Tuesday afternoon/evening, initiating isolated to scattered convection over portions of West Texas and the Big Country. This activity will likely develop initially as supercells before growing upscale into a cluster of cells or possibly an MCS. With a northwesterly mean cloud-layer wind and a 25-35 southeasterly LLJ, this complex of thunderstorms will rapidly shift southeast toward our forecast area late Tuesday evening into the overnight. Where the initial convection occurs will play a large part in determining where this complex tracks Tuesday evening/night. However, there are several signals that our western Central Texas counties could witness the brunt of this complex`s impact. These convective systems tend to track along instability gradients, and most guidance right now places that SBCAPE gradient/weak, stalled frontal boundary generally along/south of the I-20 corridor Tuesday night. This track over western Central Texas and the Hill Country may also be reinforced by outflow from thunderstorms near the Red River Valley earlier in the day. Damaging wind gusts along the leading edge of this complex and isolated hail will be the primary hazards. Latest high-resolution guidance currently places an area along/southwest of a Breckenridge- Hillsboro line in the track of this potentially severe line of storms. The portion of this complex north of the instability gradient will likely be sub-severe with a lack of surface-based instability present. PWATs approaching 1.9-2.1" and warm cloud depths greater than 15,000ft will make these thunderstorms very efficient rainfall producers and several locations beneath these storms could pick up a quick 2-3" of rain. Continue to monitor the forecast over the next couple of days as we further refine location and timing details. This active pattern will continue through the rest of the work week with daily chances for thunderstorms over portions of North and Central Texas through at least Saturday. Coverage Wednesday may be more isolated, but the next chance for more widespread rainfall looks to arrive late Thursday into Friday as another compact shortwave progresses overhead through the northwesterly flow aloft and the aforementioned stalled frontal boundary lifts north toward the Red River enveloping most of the region in moderate surface-based instability. Severe weather will be possible at times. Additionally, multiple rounds of heavy rainfall will increase the flooding threat, especially over already saturated areas. Otherwise, temperatures will be slightly tempered by clouds and precipitation with widespread afternoon highs in the 80s and low 90s and overnight lows in the mid-60s to low 70s. Langfeld && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ Outside of isolated convection which has surely resulted in significant disruptions to DFW air traffic operations, VFR prevails and will likely continue through much of the night. Some lower clouds will be possible south of the major airports and will include some MVFR at Waco during the early morning hours. The main concern over the next 24 hours will be potential for additional convection. Thunderstorms will likely increase in coverage again late tonight mainly north of DFW but will include VCTS from 10-15Z. Better storm chances will arrive late Tuesday evening and night as a complex of storms approaches from the west. Dunn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 72 89 70 83 70 / 30 50 60 60 30 Waco 72 89 70 82 69 / 20 50 60 60 30 Paris 67 84 66 79 64 / 30 40 50 50 30 Denton 70 86 67 81 67 / 30 50 60 60 30 McKinney 69 86 68 81 67 / 30 50 60 50 30 Dallas 71 89 71 83 69 / 30 50 60 60 30 Terrell 69 88 68 82 67 / 30 50 50 50 30 Corsicana 72 89 71 83 69 / 20 50 50 60 30 Temple 73 90 70 83 69 / 20 40 60 60 30 Mineral Wells 70 89 68 81 69 / 20 60 70 60 30 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ135-145>148- 158>162-174-175. && $$