658
FXUS64 KFWD 301907
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
207 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

...New Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
Storms have lingered across North Texas longer than expected,
resulting in heavy rain and some flash flooding. The back edge of
the MCV is beginning to move into the western zones so storm
coverage should decrease from west to east through the afternoon
and evening. Substantial rainfall this afternoon, and the expected
rainfall tonight through Friday will warrant a Flood Watch through
Friday afternoon. For now we put locations along and north of I-20
in the Watch based on the heaviest rain early this week and what
is currently falling. The Flood Watch may need to be expanded
southward in later forecast depending on what falls the remainder
of the afternoon.

The temperature forecast for this afternoon is very tricky since
rain-cooled air in the north is keeping temperatures in the 60s
while south of the outflow, temperatures have hit the 90s. There
should still be some afternoon warming in the north as the rain
moves out but highs may not get out of the 70s.


79

Previous Discussion:
/This afternoon through Friday/

Numerous thunderstorms associated with an early morning storm
complex continues to move across North Texas at this time. The
good news is that storms have stayed below severe limits thus far
but that could change as we destabilize through the afternoon.
The best destabilization will occur across Central Texas where
dew points are currently in the middle 70s and some afternoon sun
is expected. The main threat with storms this afternoon will be
from gusty outflow winds and hail. High resolution solutions have
been in good agreement that this initial round of storms will exit
to the south and east late this afternoon, leaving the early
evening hours generally rain-free, outside of a few stray storms,
mainly across Central Texas.

Our focus will shift to the west this evening as storms organize
along the dryline and the western extent of the morning outflow
boundary. These storms will move eastward through the evening with
shortwave energy embedded in zonal flow aloft. Linear organization
is likely as these storms head east. Damaging winds and large
hail will be the primary hazards, but a brief tornado or two
within the line will be possible. Storm chances will decrease
from west to east during the day Friday with subsident air on the
back side of the departing system. However, the atmosphere may
have time to recover during the afternoon, so we will not take
out PoPs completely. Models continue to show a low chance of
showers and storms Friday evening/overnight with subtle shortwave
energy moving through northwest flow aloft. We will maintain some
low PoPs (20%-40%) to account for this, but most locations will
escape additional rainfall Friday night.

Plenty of clouds and rain-cooled air will keep high temperatures
generally below seasonal normals this afternoon and Friday with
lower and middle 80s. Lows tonight will range from the middle 60s
to around 70.

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 305 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024/
/Friday Night Onward/

Showers and thunderstorms will shift south and east of the region
Friday night as the shortwave responsible for our late week
convection heads for the Mississippi Valley. A remnant surface
front will still linger near the Red River, however, providing a
focus for isolated thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. These storms
will be mainly along and north of the Highway 380 corridor, though
one or two could drift south to near I-20 before dissipating
Saturday evening. Large hail and damaging winds would be possible
with any of these storms given the strong instability and decent
amounts of deep layer shear available.

Additional thunderstorms will be possible Saturday night into
Sunday associated with dryline convection to our west. A weak
shortwave will help initiate thunderstorms across the TX South
Plains and western Concho Valley Saturday late afternoon and
evening in the vicinity of the dryline. Eastward propagation would
bring these storms into western portions of North and Central
Texas after midnight Saturday night, then through the I-35
corridor early Sunday morning. The highest severe weather threat
would be across the western zones where better instability will
exist, though a damaging wind concern may continue overnight if a
decent cold pool develops. Showers and storms will weaken with
the loss of the low level jet Sunday morning, but should
redevelop east of I-35 Sunday afternoon as instability increases.
All activity should dissipate while exiting to the east Monday
night.

The persistent mid level ridge centered over Mexico will expand
north through he southern Rockies during the first half of next
week, veering winds aloft to the northwest and eventually to the
north by Wednesday. This pattern will alternate the region between
hot and humid conditions associated with the ridge and rain cooled
air associated with thunderstorms dropping south from the Plains
into North and Central Texas. Timing is a bit uncertain, but the
latest guidance indicates one storm complex arriving MOnday night,
with another sometime on Wednesday. Damaging winds would likely be
the primary threat in each case. The ridge will expand east after
Wednesday, possibly shutting down convective weather and heating
things up for the latter half of next week.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1150 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

Thunderstorm timing will be the primary concern to aviation with
this forecast. Scattered storms currently over D10 will continue
off and on through early this afternoon. Most storms will move to
the east with a passing shortwave energy later this afternoon,
leaving most of the evening storm-free. The next round of storms
will develop across West Texas late this afternoon/evening. The
best window of time for the storms to impact all TAF sites will be
between 05Z and 10Z. Strong and gusty winds, heavy rain and even
some hail will be likely with the overnight storms. Most of the
thunderstorm activity will move east of the TAF sites after 12Z.

Mainly MVFR ceilings late this morning will lift above 3000 ft by
mid-afternoon with VFR expected once the storms depart later this
afternoon. MVFR ceilings will return with the line of storms
overnight.

A south to southeast wind will remain in the 5 to 12 knot range
through Friday morning, except for gusty and erratic winds in and
near any thunderstorm.

79

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    68  83  71  86  72 /  70  60  30  40  20
Waco                68  82  70  85  72 /  60  60  20  50  10
Paris               67  79  67  84  69 /  80  80  50  40  20
Denton              66  81  68  86  70 /  70  70  30  40  20
McKinney            67  81  69  85  71 /  70  70  40  40  20
Dallas              68  82  71  87  72 /  70  60  30  40  20
Terrell             68  81  69  85  71 /  70  70  30  50  20
Corsicana           70  83  72  86  73 /  60  70  30  50  10
Temple              68  84  71  86  72 /  50  70  20  50  10
Mineral Wells       67  82  69  86  71 /  80  50  30  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Friday evening for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123.

&&

$$