158
FXUS64 KFWD 300449
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1149 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/End of The Week/

The unsettled pattern with a round of storms and locally heavy
rainfall primarily for North Texas this afternoon, possibly into
early evening NE counties. A brief reprieve occurs before another
MCS in northwest flow arrives overnight with similar impacts. The
third round you ask? Possibly late Friday morning or afternoon,
though this certainly looks more uncertain than the others. Highs
will be confined in the 70s/80s (which we`ll take this time of
year) with lows in the 60s to lower 70s.

------------------------------------------------------------

Now for the solemn, but also happy part...

With that said, this will be my final forecast discussion after 30
years in the NWS, 25 years of those a lead meteorologist. I will
always love love meteorology, forecasting, and the science. That
will never change! What I won`t miss is the 3 decades of rotating,
weekly shifts, some 6-7 days long. You throw in all the OT for
hazardous weather and it can take it`s toll on just about anyone.

I`ve especially enjoyed the outreach through the years as well
meeting and working along with so many great partners, especially
the EM community both young and old that I was honored to meet
through school talks, SKYWARN, and of course my favorite,
StormReady which I can`t understate the importance of these events.

However, it is time for me to gallop off into the sunset and to
new pastures in life and see where it takes me. I had the honor
of working in at 5 NWS offices(Brownsville TX, Goodland KS,
Spokane WA, Jackson MS, and here in Fort Worth the past 22 years)
and in 3 NWS regions(Southern, Central, and Western). I`ve had
many mentors through the years, some that are no longer with us
and have made so many connections and lifetime friendships with
colleagues throughout (you all know who you are) through those
offices, training workshops in Boulder CO, Kansas City MO, and
Atlanta GA, as well as region offices.

I write this with mixed emotions as I remember the first day in
Brownsville TX May 24th, 1994(happens to be my wife of 29 years
birthday as well). Throw in all the historic winter, tropical,
and tornadic/severe weather events I`ve part of with awesome
colleagues and meteorologists will always remain vivid in my mind
and NEVER fade and last my entire lifetime! I will miss you all,
you can bet on that. I wish you all the best in the future and
hope your memories of me are good ones! Have a great Summer and
rest of 2024 and beyond!

Sincerely,
05/Marty

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 229 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024/
/Thursday Night Onward/

By Thursday night, the initial afternoon complex mentioned in the
short term discussion above should be exiting our northwest
counties. However just upstream of the departing activity, another
MCS will be making its way southeast across the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles. This cluster is expected to move across North and
Central Texas after midnight into the early morning hours, likely
impacting the morning commute. Severe storms will be possible with
large hail and damaging winds the main threats. There is a lower
tertiary tornado threat with this round of activity, especially
along the leading edge of the line where a couple spin-up tornadoes
are possible. An additional cluster of storms looks to move in
behind the morning line over Friday afternoon. This line would also
have the potential to become severe, if the atmosphere does not end
up too worked over from the previous activity. PWATs close to 2"
will promote heavy rain during this time. With already saturated
soils across the region, there will be an increased concern for
flash flooding going into the weekend.

While the Southern Plains will generally stay within the top of the
broad longwave ridge across Latin America, multiple shortwave
disturbances will ride along the apex through next week bringing on
and off storm chances for North and Central Texas. Ensemble guidance
shows increased severe probabilities across the region through the
weekend for our area, so we`ll need to keep that in mind as we go
through this week. CSU severe probs also highlight our CWA each day.
For now, keep an eye on the forecast each day and have your safety
plan in place. Make sure to have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings including your cell phone, weather radio, and outdoor
warning sirens.

Last but not least, temperatures over next week will increase back
into the mid 80s and 90s. While ambient temperatures are near normal
for this time of year, persistently high dewpoints in the low-mid
70s (close to record high values for DFW) will push heat indices
closer to around 100 each afternoon Monday-Wednesday. Make sure to
practice heat safety as we head into the first week of
meteorological summer!

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06z TAFs/

The primary challenges remain timing of morning MVFR/IFR
conditions, then timing a couple rounds of strong to severe TSRA.
One round will be around 21z, with the other arriving near 06z.
VFR cigs may not return until just before the first round of
storms by/after 18z. Otherwise, SE winds around 10 kts will
prevail.

05/Marty

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    72  86  69  80  70 /  10  60  80  70  40
Waco                72  84  70  80  70 /  10  50  70  80  40
Paris               67  83  66  80  67 /  10  60  70  80  50
Denton              70  83  67  79  67 /  10  70  80  70  40
McKinney            70  84  67  79  68 /  10  70  70  80  50
Dallas              72  85  69  80  70 /  10  60  80  70  40
Terrell             72  83  68  79  69 /  10  60  70  80  40
Corsicana           72  84  71  79  71 /  10  60  60  80  40
Temple              72  85  71  81  70 /  10  40  70  70  40
Mineral Wells       69  82  68  78  68 /  20  50  70  70  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$