423
FXUS64 KFWD 290956 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
456 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
Made some minor tweaks to rain chances for today into this evening
for the latest indications, but the pattern will remain unsettled
like noted before and confidence is low on timing and location.
Keep abreast of the latest forecasts before planning any outdoor
activities.

05/Marty

Previous Discussion:
/Today Into Thursday/

The wet and at times, stormy episodes will continue with
occasional periods of severe weather. Though it won`t be
constant, there will be occasional episodes of weather between
mid morning tomorrow through early afternoon, with more isolated
coverage this evening, then another complex arriving later
Thursday morning. Granted, CAMs are struggling and nowhere in
agreement in this northwest flow aloft regime with a moisture rich
atmosphere in place. Confidence isn`t high on timing and/or
coverage of convective events through Thursday, so we`ll just have
to fine tune these forecasts as we move through the period. In
addition, these successive periods of storms will only increase
the flooding threat, including mainstem rivers and tributaries
across the area along with isolated instances of flash flooding.

On the positive side of things (if there is one), the extensive
cloud cover and rain and storms will keep humidity levels more at
seasonal norms and high temperatures ranging from the upper 70s
into the 80s, versus the 90s to near 100 degrees like last week.
Lows will continue between 65 and 75 degrees.

05/Marty

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 318 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024/
/Thursday Night Onward/

Thunderstorms generated by a slow-moving shortwave over the
Plains will trek east across North Texas Thursday night, some of
which may pose a wind and hail threat. Activity should exit to the
east around or shortly after daybreak Friday. Additional storms
are expected to develop as the atmosphere destabilizes Friday
afternoon within the northwest flow on the back edge of the
aforementioned shortwave. It is uncertain exactly where these
storms will develop, as mesoscale boundaries may be the primary
focus for development. The most likely scenario at this time
looks like convection may initiate just northwest of the region
during peak heating, in the vicinity of a surface low associated
with a remnant front. These storms would likely grow upscale as
they work their way southeast through North Texas Friday evening.
Damaging winds would be the main threat if a good cold pool can
develop, with large hail also being possible. The tornado threat
would be low, but a spin-up tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

Northwest flow will remain overhead through the weekend as a mid
level ridge holds strong over Mexico. A weak disturbance aloft
will help ignite thunderstorms along the dryline Saturday
afternoon and evening. The dryline and convective initiation would
be well west of the region, likely somewhere near or west of a
line from Lubbock to San Angelo. These storms would not arrive
until around midnight across the western-most counties, and would
initially contain a threat for hail and damaging winds. Activity
would then weaken during the overnight hours as it crosses the
I-35 corridor. Storms may fall apart Sunday morning with the loss
of the low level jet, but additional storms would then be
possible east of I-35 Sunday afternoon in the vicinity of
residual outflow produced by the overnight activity. The Sunday
convection would dissipate fairly quickly Sunday night as a strong
capping inversion develops. A few storms may be capable of
downburst winds and hail, but the overall severe threat appears
fairly low at this time.

After a brief lull, another round of thunderstorms looks likely
Monday afternoon and evening as the next shortwave dives southeast
across the Southern Plains. By this point we will be into the
first week of June, and it is not too surprising that the
northwest flow pattern will continue to be unsettled through much
of next week with an MCS or two likely surging south across the
Red River. Will fine tune the timing and projected intensity of
these systems this weekend or early next week.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
Update:
/12z TAFs/

The only changes made will be to remove MVFR cigs this morning
from D10 airports, as MCV transiting the area and associated lift
should keep the low levels mixed enough for low VFR until the next
batch of SHRA/TSRA out west arrive later this morning.

05/Marty

Previous Discussion:
/06z TAFs/

Timing rounds of TSRA/SHRA and MVFR cigs continues to be the
primary challenges with only minor tweaks to timing of both from
the 00z/03z TAF set.

The first round before 09z was changed to SHRA from TSRA as the
atmosphere across the DFW Metro Airports remains worked over, but
will maintain TSRA at Waco by 07z/08z. Next round was delayed 2-3
hours to 13z-14z per latest high-resolution models before
occurring again by 03z this evening. Confidence is not high on
timing beyond 19z, so expect more adjustments.

MVFR cigs should occur once the first weak complex of rain passes
through, then go VFR after 18z and beyond. E/SE winds 5-10 kts
will prevail throughout.

05/

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    83  70  83  71  82 /  60  40  60  50  60
Waco                84  73  84  71  84 /  60  30  50  40  70
Paris               82  68  81  67  78 /  60  40  60  40  70
Denton              82  68  82  68  81 /  60  50  60  60  70
McKinney            82  69  82  68  79 /  40  40  60  50  70
Dallas              84  70  84  70  82 /  60  40  60  50  60
Terrell             83  71  83  69  81 /  60  30  50  50  70
Corsicana           85  72  84  73  84 /  60  30  50  40  70
Temple              85  73  86  72  85 /  60  30  40  40  60
Mineral Wells       83  70  84  69  82 /  70  50  40  60  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$