Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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751 FXUS64 KFWD 262022 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 322 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 ...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 155 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024/ /Through Memorial Day/ Storms in Central Texas, which survived well beyond the traditional cessation of the nocturnal low-level jet, have finally exited our southeastern zones. Despite an approaching frontal boundary, strongly veered flow and reduced boundary layer moisture will mean we will finally have a storm-free afternoon. Although rich moisture will remain across Central and East Texas, the front will lose its forward momentum, and the region should remain well capped. CAMs have backed off on convection in East Texas, and the plurality of guidance keeps the radar scope empty. In areas of reduced humidity and full sun, temperatures will soar, aided by vigorous downsloping winds. Wind speeds will tend to diminish near peak heating as the boundary approaches, enhancing temperatures just ahead of it. DFW`s forecast high is 99F, which would match the record high for May 26, set previously in 1980. Rain-soaked areas may not get as warm, particularly those in the humid sector where there will also be daytime CU. The Heat Advisory will remain intact even though the reduced afternoon temperatures within it may prevent a few locations from reaching criteria. As the boundary experiences frontolysis overnight, wind speeds will diminish further. And with clear skies, patchy ground fog will likely develop within the humid air across Central and East Texas, particularly in those areas that have seen significant rainfall this weekend. This process may be accompanied by low clouds, both of which should effectively burn off Monday morning, and a bright sunny day will follow. Moisture will return to North Texas and the Big Country, but the highest heat index values will be within the Heat Advisory area. The enhanced boundary layer moisture and unseasonal easterly winds will reduce daytime temperatures from the previous day, but it will still be uncomfortably muggy Memorial Day with lighter winds. Those who are unaccustomed to spending time outdoors in the heat should take all necessary precautions: wear light, loose-fitting clothing and drink plenty of water. In addition, the UV will be intense, equivalent to a similar day in mid-July. 25 && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Monday Night into the weekend/ With a mid/upper-level ridge building over the western U.S. and consolidating lows/troughs over the Great Lakes, North and Central Texas will be on the southern fringe of a northwest flow pattern by late Monday. Regional models and high-resolution CAMs show rain chances may return as early as Monday evening as a cold front continues to slowly move across the region. This will kick-off the next multi-day period of unsettled weather across North and Central Texas. Daily thunderstorm complexes are expected to develop across the High Plains in response to a series of subtle shortwaves/perturbations embedded along the northern periphery of the larger scale ridge. Convection will spread eastward nightly, bringing periodic rain and storm chances to the region through the end of the week. The pattern will become increasingly messy as the week wears on as mesoscale features evolve. This lowered predictability has resulted in some broad-brushing of PoPs, especially mid/late week. The main change with this forecast update will be the introduction of slight chance (20% of less) PoPs after 00Z Tuesday (7 PM Monday) generally near and west of the I-35 corridor. As the backdoor front temporarily stalls over the region late Monday, the moist/unstable and briefly uncapped airmass south of the front will be primed for storm development with the potential for severe weather given the 50 kts of available effective shear. A strengthening low level jet during the evening will also enhance moisture advection and isentropic ascent through the overnight period. If storms develop, all severe hazards will be possible. By Thursday into Friday, the front should lift back northward as a warm front, repositioning the warm/moist airmass more directly overhead and fueling thunderstorm development through the end of the week and into the weekend. With PWATs approaching 1.75 to 2 inches at times, periods of locally heavy rainfall are likely. Due to lingering moist soils, localized flooding issues may also emerge, especially wherever higher convective rain rates occur. Temperatures will be fairly steady throughout the week though tempered slightly by the expected cloud cover and precipitation. Highs will generally be in the 80s to lower 90s with lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s. 12 && .AVIATION... /Issued 155 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024/ /18Z TAFs/ Wind shifts, but otherwise VFR with no significant concerns. Potential for BR and IFR ceilings Monday morning at Waco. Breezy southwesterly winds will gradually subside as a weak frontal boundary approaches. Veering wind to the west and eventually northwest will occur late in the day across D10. Light northwest winds will veer further overnight to the northeast, eventually becoming easterly by midday Monday. While a shift to north flow will likely be required late this afternoon, Monday`s winds should be light enough to allow for either flow configuration. (The boundary is unlikely to make significant changes to the wind direction in Central Texas.) After nearly daily storm chances the past several days, no thunder impacts are expected until Monday evening at the earliest (which is currently beyond the scope of the TAFs). Clear skies will prevail across D10 with cirrus arriving late Monday. Daytime CU will occur at Waco. Waco may also experience a brief period of ground fog and/or IFR ceilings Monday morning, but both should remain south/east of the Metroplex (though they may encroach on D10). 25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 72 95 73 89 69 / 0 0 20 40 60 Waco 71 95 73 89 69 / 0 5 10 40 60 Paris 67 92 67 85 66 / 5 5 10 30 50 Denton 67 93 69 88 67 / 0 0 20 40 60 McKinney 68 92 70 87 68 / 0 0 20 40 60 Dallas 72 95 73 90 69 / 0 5 20 40 60 Terrell 71 92 70 88 68 / 0 5 20 40 50 Corsicana 74 94 74 91 70 / 0 5 10 40 50 Temple 72 96 73 90 68 / 0 5 20 40 50 Mineral Wells 67 94 70 89 67 / 0 0 20 50 70 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ135-145>148-158>162- 174-175. && $$