Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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153
FXUS64 KFWD 160825
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
325 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017


.DISCUSSION...
A crisp, tranquil fall morning is underway in wake of yesterday`s
cold frontal passage with a 1030mb surface high dominating the
central US. The arrival of dry air along with relatively light
north winds has allowed temperatures to fall quickly, and most of
the forecast area will start out the day in the 40s or low 50s.
Highs this afternoon will be a battle between continued weak cold
advection and diabatic heating. With such dry air in place,
diurnal temperature swings should be amplified, allowing air to
heat up quickly during the afternoons but cool rapidly overnight.
As a result, have gone above guidance on highs and below guidance
on lows. With even lighter winds expected tonight, this will mean
most locations will fall into the 40s with even some upper 30s
possible in outlying rural areas, especially across our
northwestern zones. Tuesday should be the coolest morning since
April.

As surface high pressure begins shifting eastward late Tuesday and
Wednesday, winds will return to the south and a warming trend will
ensue in the new-found warm advection regime. Moisture, however,
will be slow to return given fairly weak wind fields through the
low-levels. Temperatures should return to above-normal for
Wednesday where they will remain through the end of the week.
Some 50s and low 60s dewpoints will begin arriving on Thursday,
and Thursday morning could end up being quite favorable for fog
development, especially across Central TX. Haven`t included any
mention in the forecast this far in advance, but it is something
to keep an eye on over the next couple of days.

The fairly zonal flow pattern aloft will give way to a few upper
disturbances late in the week, the first of which will swing into
the Southern Plains late Thursday and Friday. This will lead to a
better moisture surge with dewpoints climbing back into the 60s
area-wide. Weak ascent from the passing disturbance could lead to
a few showers and thunderstorms on Friday afternoon, mainly
across Central TX where the deeper moisture will be located.
Similar conditions should be expected through Saturday with some
low rain chances due to lift predominantly from warm advection.

Models are coming into slightly better agreement for the late-
weekend forecast which should feature a potent upper trough
diving southeastward through the High Plains and towards North
Texas; another strong cold front would also accompany this system.
The latest GFS and ECMWF runs are maintaining a progressive
solution which would send the trough and cold front through the
region late Saturday night or Sunday. Unlike yesterday`s cold
frontal passage, this front will have very strong dynamic forcing
from the digging shortwave, which also implies some steeper lapse
rates and more favorable shear. Should this scenario materialize,
there will be a higher potential for more widespread showers and
storms, and possibly some strong or severe storms as well. We`ll
still need to see much more consistency from models however,
before much confidence can be expressed in this potential. By late
Sunday or early next week, the trough is forecast to become
cutoff (likely to our southeast) which would keep rain chances
around in the form of post-frontal deformation zone precipitation.
This solution would mean a cooler, cloudy, and rainy start to
next week, although confidence through the extended is still
fairly low given recent model inconsistencies.

-Stalley

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 1142 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017/
/6Z TAFS/

No major changes to the TAF forecast through the period. VFR
conditions will prevail with northerly flow around 10 kt. Winds
will become light easterly late tomorrow night into Tuesday
morning areawide as the surface high shifts to the east. No major
aviation concerns expected through the period.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    76  47  78  52  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                77  43  78  48  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               73  43  74  46  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              74  41  76  48  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            74  43  75  47  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              76  49  78  52  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             75  43  76  47  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           75  45  77  48  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              76  43  80  47  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       73  41  79  46  84 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

26/26



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