Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47
000
FXUS64 KFWD 260841
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
341 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE LAST WEEK OF APRIL THROUGH THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF MAY ARE
SHAPING UP TO BE AN ACTIVE PERIOD AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THIS MORNING/S SATELLITE
DATA INDICATES THAT THE FIRST SYSTEM SLATED TO AFFECT THE NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS IS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. A DISTINCT VORTICITY LOBE CAN BE SEEN ROTATING
AROUND THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LOW OVER ARIZONA. THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE BASE OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS NEW
MEXICO THIS MORNING AND THEN INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON...FORCING THE UPPER LOW TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE PLAINS TONIGHT.

THE RESULTING NEGATIVELY TILTED APPEARANCE TAKEN ON BY THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM IS GENERALLY CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY IN THE SPRING WHEN OTHER
PARAMETERS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION ARE MORE LIKELY TO BECOME
FAVORABLE. ONE SUCH PARAMETER WILL BE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...WHICH IN THIS CASE WILL BE ENHANCED AS A DRYLINE IS
NUDGED EASTWARD INTO WESTERN COUNTIES OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
ANOTHER WILL BE INSTABILITY...WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE IN GREAT
SUPPLY AS CAPE CLIMBS TO NEAR 4000 J/KG IN THE VICINITY OF THE
DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ROTATING CELLS CAPABLE OF MAINTAINING STRONG
UPDRAFTS...WHICH MEANS THAT LARGE HAIL WILL BE OUR MOST LIKELY
SEVERE THREAT. DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS WILL ALSO BE A GOOD
POSSIBILITY WITH ANY STORMS WHICH BECOMES SEVERE. LOW LEVEL SHEAR
DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY GREAT FOR AN OUTBREAK OF
TORNADOES...BUT WHEN COMBINED WITH SUCH GOOD INSTABILITY WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR A FEW TORNADOES TO OCCUR.

THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE EARLY ON IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS...OR DURING THE 4 TO
10 PM TIME-FRAME WHEN DISCRETE CELLS ARE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR.
LOCATION SHOULD INITIALLY BE WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35/35W
CORRIDOR NEAR THE DRY-LINE. UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO A LINEAR
CONVECTIVE MODE IS LIKELY LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
STORMS SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND CONTINUE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BE ANOTHER POSSIBLE THREAT OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF
ANY STORMS ARE ABLE TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT ROUND OF STORMS WILL OCCUR LATE THURSDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER
LOW DEEPENS OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE PLAINS. IT LOOKS LIKE TWO MAIN PIECES OF ENERGY WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...ONE OF WHICH WILL GENERATE THE
THURSDAY NIGHT STORMS...AND THE NEXT WHICH WILL GENERATE A SECOND
ROUND OF CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK QUITE AS FAVORABLE AS THEY DO
WITH THIS EVENINGS/S SYSTEM,...BUT STILL LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
SEVERE WEATHER BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURATED
SOILS FROM THE EARLY-WEEK STORMS WILL ALSO INCREASE THE
LIKELIHOOD OF LOCALIZED FLOODING.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS THE SYSTEM HEADS FOR THE GREAT LAKES. ON MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE EAST ALONG THE RED RIVER REGION...GENERATING
YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME...THE
GFS INDICATES THAT THIS WILL BE A MONDAY DAYTIME EVENT...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER...INDICATING A MONDAY NIGHT EVENT.
WE WILL SHOW POPS FOR BOTH TIME PERIODS AND REFINE AS MODELS COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. EITHER WAY...THERE LOOKS TO BE A BREAK IN
THE ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHING DEEPENS
IN THE EASTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
PLAINS.


30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1136 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016/
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MANAGED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF KACT AND NORTHWEST OF KAUS. THESE STORMS DID NOT LAST
MUCH PAST 03Z...AND THINGS ARE RELATIVELY QUIET FOR THE TIME
BEING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH...WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. DO EXPECT TO SEE ADDITIONAL AREAS OF LOWER CEILINGS
TO APPROACH THE TERMINAL SITES...BUT NOT UNTIL 08-09Z. WINDS WILL
BE FAIRLY STRONG OVERNIGHT...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND
15-20 KNOTS...AND THERE WILL BE SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ON
TUESDAY. HAVE KEPT VCTS FOR THE TERMINAL STIES AROUND 00Z...WITH
INITIATION A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN THIS NEAR THE BOWIE
CORNERPOST. EXPECT TO SEE A FEW DISCRETE CELLS BEFORE 00Z...BEFORE
FORMING INTO A LINE WHICH COULD AFFECT THE AIRPORTS FOR A FEW
HOURS BETWEEN 00-04Z.

FOX


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    84  64  86  63  85 /  30  60  10   5  10
WACO                83  63  86  62  85 /  20  60  20  10  10
PARIS               81  65  81  60  83 /  20  60  30  10   5
DENTON              83  60  84  59  85 /  30  60  10   5  10
MCKINNEY            82  62  83  59  84 /  20  60  20  10  10
DALLAS              84  64  86  63  86 /  20  60  20  10  10
TERRELL             82  65  84  62  85 /  20  60  20  10  10
CORSICANA           82  66  85  64  85 /  20  60  30  10  10
TEMPLE              83  64  86  63  84 /  30  60  20  10  20
MINERAL WELLS       86  58  85  58  85 /  50  50   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

58/30



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.