Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 192046
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
346 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017


.SHORT TERM...
/Rest of Today through Tuesday/

All of the showers and thunderstorms from earlier have dissipated
with the exception of a few isolated cells in Central Texas.
Visible satellite imagery shows a large area of subsidence in
the wake of the earlier convection extending from the Hill Country
northward into the Metroplex. This suggests that at least for a
while, no new additional development is expected. Beneath the
thinning high cloud in the wake of earlier convection, we have
warmed back up into the upper 80s and lower 90s, so there is still
ample surface based instability, although not much focus for
additional development. The weak front is ill-defined, but
generally lies south of I-20. If there were any additional
shower/storms to develop this evening, they should be across the
southern half of the CWA, although this chance is about 10% or
less.

Tonight should be quiet across the region with light winds and
temperatures falling into the upper 60s and lower 70s. There could
be some patchy reductions in visibility or very low clouds in
areas that picked up rainfall earlier today, but most areas should
remain partly cloudy. Ridging will strengthen a bit on Tuesday as
mid level flow strengthens with the approaching tropical
disturbance. North Texas should remain far enough removed for any
precipitation on Tuesday, but highs will rebound into the mid 90s
areawide.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM...
/Tuesday Night through Sunday/

We`ll ring in the first full day of astronomical summer with what
should actually be a pretty pleasant day as dewpoints will
efficiently mix out into the lower to middle 60s during the
afternoon. As a result, the high temperatures in the low-mid 90s
will actually feel like low-mid 90s instead of 100+.

The main focus during the extended portion of the forecast
continues to be on any potential (likely limited) tropical
impacts from an area of disturbed weather presently churning just
off the Yucatan Peninsula. A wide disparity exists in model
forecast solutions regarding this system`s track--something that`s
not all that unexpected given the disturbance`s weak and highly
disorganized/sheared nature at this point, with several very
exposed circulation centers apparent on satellite imagery. The
potential forecast tracks are bounded on the east by the GFS and
its ensemble system (GEFS), and to the west by the ECMWF/EPS (00z)
solutions. The Canadian/GEPS (Candian Ensemble) combination
appears to exist somewhere in between, favoring a track from the
Upper Texas Coast and up through East Texas with the remnant
circulation during the Thursday-Friday timeframe.

With North and Central Texas sandwiched between the record-heat-
inducing high across the Desert Southwest and the Atlantic
subtropical ridge to the east, the logical expectation would be
for this potential system to track off to our east within the
weakness between these two features. This would favor a track
somewhere between the GEFS/CMC/GEPS progs near the TX/LA border.
As such, any impacts from this system appear quite limited for the
time being outside of some convection potentially pivoting around
the low`s eastern semicircle. For now, we`ve added slight chance
to low end chance PoPs to account for this across our far eastern
counties for Thursday-Friday.

A fairly similar pattern to this past week looks to return for the
upcoming weekend, with northwest flow aloft intensifying,
potentially allowing several disturbances/cold fronts to make a
run at the region. Broadbrushed low PoPs will therefore prevail
through this portion of the forecast given little hope of
capturing the details of the small scale perturbations within the
flow at this time range. Aside from potential additional rounds at
precipitation, increased cloud cover may also help to keep
temperatures at or just below seasonal normals for the first week
of astronomical summer.

Carlaw

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 125 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017/
/18Z TAFS/

Most of the precipitation has moved well south of the airports at
this time leaving behind a dense high overcast. Some breaks in the
clouds are noted from the Metroplex northward and we should see a
gradual decrease in cloud cover through the remainder of the day.
Surface wind fields were perturbed in the wake of morning
convection, but a broad southerly component is present across most
of the area. This should become more easterly with time. VFR
conditions are expected to prevail for the rest of the period.
We`ll have to monitor for some potential MVFR cigs/vis early
Tuesday morning, but otherwise no other major aviation concerns.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    72  95  74  95  75 /  10   5   0   0  10
Waco                73  96  71  97  74 /  10   5   0   0  10
Paris               68  90  69  92  70 /   5   5   0   0  10
Denton              70  93  70  95  73 /  10   5   0   0  10
McKinney            69  92  70  94  72 /  10   5   0   0  10
Dallas              73  95  74  95  75 /  10   5   0   0  10
Terrell             70  93  70  94  72 /  10   5   0   0  10
Corsicana           72  95  72  95  73 /  10   5   0   0  10
Temple              74  95  71  96  73 /  10   5   0   5  10
Mineral Wells       72  93  69  96  72 /  10   5   0   0  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$



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