Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 272250
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
550 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.AVIATION...
It has been quiet along the immediate I-35 corridor which includes
the Metroplex and Waco TAF sites. Isolated to scattered showers
developed during the afternoon in two bands: one to the west of a
K0F2-KLZZ line and the other to the east of a KGYI-KCRS-KLHB
line.

There will be a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
tomorrow in the Metroplex, but the chances at the individual
airports are too low to mention in the TAFs at this time.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across Central
Texas Sunday, so will include VCTS starting at 18z in the Waco
TAF. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail with southeast to east
winds at less than 10 knots.

58

&&




.SYNOPSIS...
Rain chances will continue through a majority of the 7 to 10 day
outlook for a good portion of North and Central TX. The best rain
chances look to be on Tuesday mainly across Central TX as an upper
low lifts northward from the Gulf of Mexico. Thereafter, most rain
chances will be largely predicated on diurnal heating, as well as
any remnant outflow boundaries from previous days convection. The
Labor Day Weekend may be wet for some with a low chance for a few
showers and storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday)...
Showers and thunderstorms will likely continue this afternoon and
through the early portion of the evening hours. Current trends
would suggest that the best coverage of showers and thunderstorms
will generally be out across western zones where mesoscale ascent
along a diffuse convergence zone coupled with weak synoptic scale
ascent from a subtle shortwave aloft has resulted in the
development of scattered convection. Convection has really
struggled today across eastern zones, despite a slightly more
moisture-rich troposphere. It is plausible that the reduced
coverage of convection here is a result of slightly more subsident
air given the proximity of the mid-level ridge across the SE
CONUS. That being said, additional daytime heating will occur and
there should be a gradual uptick in convection, especially along
any residual outflow boundaries. With the unorganized
tropospheric wind field and PWAT values ranging between 1.5-2",
slow storm motions will result in pockets of minor flooding. There
will be a low risk for a damaging downburst or two, but with a
smaller quantity of dry air aloft, this risk is not as high as the
past couple of days.  Activity should decay with the
loss of daytime heating.

For tonight---patchy fog may be possible, especially for areas
that receive rainfall this afternoon and experience clear skies
and calm winds tonight. There still remains some uncertainty with
regards to exact locations so for now will abstain from
mentioning patchy fog in the worded forecast and let the evening
shift examine the potential. The other feature to watch for
tonight will be the magnitude of the coastal low across the upper
TX coast. I will keep a very low chance for an isolated shower or
thunderstorm (10%) in across the eastern third of the forecast
area tonight with the east flow moist flow continuing through at
least Sunday morning.

For Sunday---Rain chances will increase slightly early Sunday
morning as east flow continues around the northern periphery of
the upper TX coast low. Most of the hi-res and global guidance
continues to push this feature down towards the south and
southwest down towards the coastal bend. As a result, the wind
field across North and Central TX backs slightly to the northeast
through the day on Sunday. This may allow for a less direct fetch
of low level moisture which may limit the areal coverage of
diurnal convection across the region, certainly compared to the
last couple of days. As a result, I`ve lowered PoPs down to 20%
along the north to 30% across Central TX. With a slightly lower
coverage of showers/storms, I`ve nudged temperatures upwards by a
few degrees areawide, with the warmest conditions along and north
of I-20.

For Monday---The overall threat for showers and storms will
continue on Monday as the coastal low moves inland across south
TX. The wind field may become slightly more favorable across the
region to allow for a slightly better feed of low level moisture.
The best threat for rain will be across southern zones with rain
chances tapering off to near 20 percent to the north. Similar to
Sunday, temperatures will be the warmest across northern zones
where a few more breaks in the cloud may prove sufficient to heat
areas into the low 90s. Mid to upper 80s are expected elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Friday)...
For Tuesday---Diurnally driven rain chances will continue on
Tuesday with a persistent feed of low level moisture from the
east. Similar to Sunday and Monday, the highest coverage of
showers/storms will be relegated to Central TX. High temperatures
will rebound slightly, but with the widespread cloud cover, it`s
likely that they will remain in the upper 80s across
southern/southwest zones to low 90s elsewhere.

For Wednesday and Thursday---Warm conditions with temperatures in
the upper 80s and low 90s are expected. Diurnal rain chances will
continue on Wednesday and with no real apparent focus, I`ve
broad-brushed slight chance PoPs everywhere. On Thursday, there
does appear to be some synoptic scale ascent ahead of a shortwave
trough that is forecast to slide southeastward out of the Central
Plains. The best ascent and thus rain chances should be along and
northeast of a line from Gainesville to Mckinney to Van.

For the Labor Day Weekend---Low rain chances will continue into
the first portion of the Labor Day Weekend. Again, with no real
focus, I`ve inserted 20% PoPs area-wide with the most likely time
frame for showers and storms coming in the afternoon hours on
Friday. Saturday and Sunday appear dry for much of North and
Central TX at this time with perhaps a very slight chance for rain
across far eastern zones. For now I will advertise a dry forecast
areawide and new model output will be examined.

24-Bain

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    75  91  76  93  76 /  30  20  20  20  20
Waco                73  89  74  90  73 /  40  30  30  30  20
Paris               73  91  73  92  73 /  40  20  20  20  10
Denton              73  91  72  92  73 /  30  20  20  20  20
McKinney            73  90  73  92  74 /  30  20  20  20  20
Dallas              76  91  77  93  77 /  30  20  20  20  20
Terrell             74  90  74  91  74 /  30  20  20  20  20
Corsicana           74  90  74  91  74 /  30  20  20  30  20
Temple              73  88  73  88  73 /  40  30  30  40  20
Mineral Wells       72  90  72  91  72 /  40  20  20  30  20

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

58/90



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