Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 221742 AAC
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1242 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFs/

Concerns...Convective showers this afternoon, possibly a
dissipating complex of storms reaching the DFW Metroplex late
tonight or early Monday morning, and return of IFR/MVFR cigs
overnight.

Cig heights vary across the region this afternoon with generally
MVFR and VFR conditions. For the first few hours, will prevail VFR
with a tempo group through 23Z for BKN020-030. Lower level clouds
later this afternoon will likely become few-sct with BKN250.
Overnight, expect IFR and MVFR stratus to return but there are
hints the stratus deck may mainly stay west of Interstate 35,
leaving the TAF sites on the eastern edge. However, with deep
south flow in place, confidence is high enough to return MVFR cigs
at KACT from 05-18Z but have IFR conditions from 10-15Z. For the
DFW TAF sites, will prevail MVFR cigs from 08-17Z.

Showers have been developing near the TAF sites this morning but
most of the activity has been outside the 10 NM radius. Will
continue with a VCSH mention through 21Z but there is a small
chance for VCTS this afternoon. Overnight tonight, we will be
monitoring for a possible complex of storms moving into North
Texas from the west and/or northwest that we expect would be
weakening as it approaches the DFW airports. Confidence in this
solution is low and will not mention any precipitation overnight
or early Monday morning at this time.

JLDunn

&&

.UPDATE...
Made a few cosmetic changes to precipitation chances, wx type and sky
cover for the remainder of the this morning and into the afternoon---
otherwise the rest of the forecast remains in good shape.

12 UTC RAOBs across the region revealed a fairly stout subsidence
inversion is in place across the area. That being said, some weak
convection has managed to develop along what appears to be a low
level weak confluence zone along and near a Gainesville to DFW to
Centerville line. Recent radar imagery shows that much of this
convection this morning has struggled to produce lightning. As a
result, a majority of the activity this morning is expected to
remain mainly in the form of showers with perhaps a few isolated
lightning strikes.

The latest hi-resolution model guidance does suggest that more
robust convection may be possible this afternoon. Overall large
scale ascent is expected to remain meager at best and with cloud
cover persisting, except across far northeast zones, it may be
difficult to generate a large amount of surface based instability.
With mid level flow expected to be weak this afternoon, I think
the probability of widespread severe weather remains low, but
cannot completely disregard a risk for downburst winds or
marginally severe hail. Heavy rain will also be possible with
minor flooding as good low level moisture exists and storm motions
are expected to be slow.

The rest of the forecast remains unchanged. Will re-assess the
potential for a complex of storms to move into the CWA this
evening and through the overnight hours with the latest guidance.
Updated products have been transmitted.

Bain

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016/
Thunderstorm chances will be on the increase today and persist
through much of the upcoming week with a large upper trough
expected to linger across the western U.S. A severe weather threat
will accompany thunderstorms through much of this period.

This morning`s surface analysis shows a plume of rich Gulf of
Mexico moisture in place across much of the state extending
westward into the Panhandle and up into western Kansas. Across
east Texas, on the western periphery of surface high pressure,
some drier air is in place. This effectively results in a moisture
boundary extending from near Jasper to Athens to Dallas with
east-northeast winds on the drier side and southerly winds on the
moist side. While weak upper ridging is in place aloft, there is
some surface convergence along this boundary so we will have to
watch for scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm through
the late morning hours across our east and southeast counties.
Later today...focus will turn back to the west as scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop along and east of the
dryline. The dryline should remain west of our area but
thunderstorms that develop late this afternoon will likely be
aided by increasing ascent from an embedded shortwave trough
approaching from the west. This should keep the activity going
well into the evening hours where one or more clusters of
thunderstorms is expected. For this afternoon...will have the
highest PoPs confined to our far western counties with some 20/30
percent chances across the far south to account for any lingering
late morning activity. There is a severe threat with any
thunderstorms that develop this afternoon...including the threat
for large hail and damaging winds.

Moderate to strong instability across North Texas and a
strengthening low level jet late this evening should allow any
clusters of thunderstorms to move southeast into our area tonight.
Again, the favored area for thunderstorms will be areas along and
west of Interstate 35. Any organized complex of thunderstorms
would pose a damaging wind threat late this evening or overnight.

Monday`s forecast is somewhat dependent upon what happens
overnight tonight. If we get an organized complex of thunderstorms
to move through...then that would likely stabilize things for the
better part of the day on Monday. The exception would be our
eastern counties where low level convergence along our moisture
boundary remains. So for Monday...will have the highest PoPs in
the east.

By Monday evening into Tuesday and Wednesday...increasing
southwesterly flow aloft will aid low level warming and a
strengthening capping inversion across the area. Think that it
will be rather difficult for thunderstorms to develop or move into
the region with little in the way of upper forcing to help. The
only exceptions might be our extreme eastern counties Tuesday
afternoon when capping is not quite as strong and across our far
northwest counties late Tuesday evening when dryline activity may
be able to sustain itself for a few hours. Otherwise...t should be
dry Tuesday and Wednesday.

Better thunderstorm chances arrive Thursday and Friday as a strong
piece of shortwave energy ejects out into the southern Plains. The
dryline should also move a little farther east these days with the
stronger westerly winds aloft associated with the shortwave
trough. Similar to earlier in the week...severe weather will be
possible both Thursday and Friday.

Temperatures will be near seasonal norms today and tomorrow with
our warmest days expected on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Dunn



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    84  70  84  71  87 /  20  40  20  10  10
Waco                83  70  84  71  86 /  20  30  20  10  10
Paris               82  66  82  69  84 /  20  20  30  20  20
Denton              83  68  80  70  84 /  20  50  20  20  10
McKinney            82  69  81  70  85 /  20  30  20  10  10
Dallas              85  70  84  71  87 /  20  40  20  10  10
Terrell             84  68  82  70  86 /  20  20  30  10  10
Corsicana           84  69  84  70  86 /  30  20  20  10  10
Temple              82  70  83  71  85 /  30  20  20  10  10
Mineral Wells       84  69  83  70  86 /  20  50  20  20  10

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

82/15



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