Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 311242
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
742 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE TAFS ARE
THE TIMING OF A SOUTH TO NORTH WIND SHIFT THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT...AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES/TIMING.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR A DENTON TO
GRANBURY TO BROWNWOOD LINE AS OF 7AM/12Z. THE FEATURE THAT WAS
HOLDING THE FRONT BACK FROM THE METROPLEX TAF SITES WAS A SURFACE
LOW THAT WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTHWEST OF FORT WORTH AT 12Z. THE
SURFACE LOW HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE THIS MORNING...BUT IS EXPECTED
TO SLIDE EAST...TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH 15Z. THIS
SHOULD BRING SURFACE WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST...AND THEN NORTHWEST
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE
ACROSS THE METROPLEX.

CONTINUE TO TRACK THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE RED RIVER SOUTH TOWARDS
THE METROPLEX...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THESE STORMS HOLDING TOGETHER IS
NOT 100 PERCENT. AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH VCTS IN THE DFW
AREA TAFS THROUGH 15Z...SIMPLY EXTRAPOLATING THE SLOW SOUTHERLY
PROGRESS OF THE RED RIVER STORMS. WILL HAVE TO AMEND THE TAFS AND
POSSIBLY ISSUE AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING AS THIS LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS GETS CLOSER TO THE DFW AREA. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN ISOLATED IN THIS LINE SO FAR...SO ONLY OCCASIONAL STRIKES ARE
EXPECTED IF THIS LINE HOLDS TOGETHER INTO THE METROPLEX.

BEHIND THE FRONT AND LINE OF STORMS...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...CLIMBING TO VFR LEVELS DURING THE
PEAK HEATING HRS OF THE DAY. DRY AIR ALOFT SHOULD KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL AREA TAF SITES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

CAVANAUGH

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/
THE SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THAT WAS LOCATED
OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO YESTERDAY HAS PUSHED INTO NORTH TEXAS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND IS EASILY VISIBLE VIA WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. BASED ON OBSERVATIONS...THE SURFACE LOW APPEARS TO BE
LOCATED JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE DFW METROPLEX NEAR GRANBURY AS OF
08Z...WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE
LOW. THIS SYSTEM BROUGHT IN A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THAT RESULTED IN HEAVY RAIN FOR OUR RED RIVER
COUNTIES AND THIS THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING FOR
AREAS NORTHEAST OF A BOWIE...TO DALLAS...TO PALESTINE LINE.
LOCALIZED FLOODING HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED AND WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A THREAT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

WHILE MOST AREAS OF THE CWA WILL SEE LESS THAN A QUARTER
OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL...AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE DFW METRO MAY SEE
AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS IN THIS AREA WILL BE OVER 2 INCHES AND
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ARE THICK...SUGGESTING WARM RAIN PROCESSES
DOMINATING THE AREA.

THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING AND SHOULD END FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A RAPID END TO
THE PRECIPITATION FOR OUR AREA WITH RAINFALL EXPECTED TO END BY
THIS EVENING. THE LOW APPEARS TO BE MOVING RATHER QUICKLY OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND THE PENDANT COLD FRONT DRAGGING FROM IT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY AND CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT. WEAK NORTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLOW TO CLIMB AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND LINGERING CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD DIMINISH THIS WEEKEND AND HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S AS WEAK NORTH WINDS REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA.

THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD
OVER THE COMING DAYS AND EDGE CLOSER TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
HOWEVER...WE SHOULD STAY ON THE PERIPHERY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND COULD INTRODUCE
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES LATER IN THE WEEK...SHOULD UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES RIDE AROUND THE RIDGE AND TRAVERSE CLOSE TO NORTH
TEXAS. HIGHS IN THE 90S WILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK AND THE
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY WILL HELP ACCELERATE THE
WARMING TREND BUT TRIPLE DIGITS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

AJS

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  67  85  62  88 /  50  10   5   5   5
WACO, TX              88  68  87  67  89 /  30  20  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             73  63  81  63  84 /  50  20  10   5  10
DENTON, TX            77  65  85  61  86 /  50  10   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          77  64  83  62  86 /  50  10   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            83  67  84  63  88 /  50  10   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           83  69  83  65  89 /  50  20  10   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         86  70  85  65  87 /  40  20  10   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            88  68  90  65  89 /  40  20  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     81  65  87  64  88 /  30  10   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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