229
FXUS64 KFWD 031828 CCA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
115 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Tuesday Afternoon/

Another round of storms is now moving into North Texas, bringing
a renewed threat for both severe weather and flash flooding.

The airmass across North Texas remains quite moist, evident by
the >75F dew points that are now approaching the I-20 corridor at
this time. Couple the moist airmass with localized ascent due a
southward surging cold pool and we`ll once again be talking about
another round of storms moving southward through the region this
afternoon. Precipitable water values continue to be at or slightly
above the 90th percentile, meaning, these thunderstorms will
continue to produce heavy rain. Antecedent soil conditions are
likely to lead to quick runoff with renewed flooding possible.

In addition to the southward surging line, additional storms will
be possible east of I-35 and south of I-20 along a tight theta-e
gradient. If storms can develop in this region, a few strong to
severe storms cannot be ruled out through the afternoon.

After the late afternoon system moves through, we`ll have to
monitor any additional thunderstorm development across the TX
Panhandle and western Oklahoma. There is guidance that suggests
the dryline will set off a few storms and congeal them into a
complex. Corfidi vectors suggest a southeastward moving complex
may push across the region late this evening into tonight from the
northwest. If these storms do occur, damaging winds, large hail
and flash flooding will be the main hazards once again. Confidence
in this line of storms remains low.

For tomorrow, some relief from the rain is expected as weak
ridging aloft likely keeps precipitation at bay. Unfortunately,
this will mean the heat returns with highs in the mid to upper
90s. A few triple digit readings cannot be ruled out in western
North Texas.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 409 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024/
/Tuesday through Next Weekend/

As advertised over the last several days, the heat will take the
main headline through most of the period. But before we get a few
rain-free days, there will be additional storm chances mainly
Tuesday night and Wednesday. A disturbance in the mid-levels will
send a surface front southward with scattered storms developing
along the boundary. At this time, it appears they will impact our
area between midnight and daybreak Wednesday generally along/east
of I-35 to the northeast. Some of these storms could be strong to
marginally severe, so continue to check back for updates.
Afternoon rain chances will depend on what happens during the
morning hours, but if there`s any leftover boundary nearby we
could see additional development of storms. Still, coverage should
be very limited given the forecast warm temperatures in the mid-
levels. Temperature wise, expect highs in the low to mid 90s
Tuesday and Wednesday with a few locations across the far western
zones peaking the triple digit mark. The high humidity will result
in heat indices in the 99-108 range. Make sure to stay safe in
the heat by taking all the necessary precautions to avoid heat-
related illnesses. Take frequent breaks from the sun and drink
plenty of water!

For the rest of the period, mid-level ridging will dominate the
weather pattern. Daytime highs will be in the 90s each day with
plenty of sunshine and light winds. While some of the extended
models show another system approaching our area by Friday or
Saturday, but the bulk of the guidance keep us dry through at
least half of the weekend.

Sanchez

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

Concerns...Low ceilings, TSRA and wind shift late this afternoon.
Low confidence in second round of storms overnight.

The MVFR deck that spread across the region this morning is in
the process of scattering out, evident by the speckling of
MVFR/VFR across the region. This will likely improve to VFR as
low-level mixing increases cloud heights. The improvements are
likely to be temporary as a line of storms inches closer to the
D10 airspace. VCTS has been shifted earlier to account for the
approaching line of storms. TSRA is now advertised between 21-00Z
where northerly winds appear likely. The northerly winds will
linger for a few hours before southeasterly winds return to the
area. A similar trend is expected at Waco closer to 00Z.

Improvements are expected after 00Z as VFR returns to the region.
This too, will be temporary as low-level moisture comes back and
MVFR once again overspread the region. Confidence in an afternoon
round of storms remains too low to include in the TAF, therefore,
we`ll continue to monitor trends through the next several hours.

Hernandez

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    89  74  93  76  92 /  50  20   5  20  10
Waco                89  72  92  75  91 /  30  30   5  10  10
Paris               84  69  87  73  87 /  60  30  20  30  20
Denton              88  72  93  74  91 /  50  20   5  20  10
McKinney            87  72  91  75  89 /  60  30   5  20  10
Dallas              90  72  93  76  92 /  50  20   5  20  10
Terrell             87  72  90  74  89 /  60  30   5  20  20
Corsicana           89  74  92  76  91 /  50  20  10  10  20
Temple              89  74  94  75  92 /  30  30  10  10  10
Mineral Wells       90  72  97  75  93 /  20  10   0  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$