747
FXUS64 KFWD 301938
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
238 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 207 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024/
Update:
Storms have lingered across North Texas longer than expected,
resulting in heavy rain and some flash flooding. The back edge of
the MCV is beginning to move into the western zones so storm
coverage should decrease from west to east through the afternoon
and evening. Substantial rainfall this afternoon, and the expected
rainfall tonight through Friday will warrant a Flood Watch through
Friday afternoon. For now we put locations along and north of I-20
in the Watch based on the heaviest rain early this week and what
is currently falling. The Flood Watch may need to be expanded
southward in later forecast depending on what falls the remainder
of the afternoon.

The temperature forecast for this afternoon is very tricky since
rain-cooled air in the north is keeping temperatures in the 60s
while south of the outflow, temperatures have hit the 90s. There
should still be some afternoon warming in the north as the rain
moves out but highs may not get out of the 70s.

79

Previous Discussion:
/This afternoon through Friday/

Numerous thunderstorms associated with an early morning storm
complex continues to move across North Texas at this time. The
good news is that storms have stayed below severe limits thus far
but that could change as we destabilize through the afternoon.
The best destabilization will occur across Central Texas where
dew points are currently in the middle 70s and some afternoon sun
is expected. The main threat with storms this afternoon will be
from gusty outflow winds and hail. High resolution solutions have
been in good agreement that this initial round of storms will exit
to the south and east late this afternoon, leaving the early
evening hours generally rain-free, outside of a few stray storms,
mainly across Central Texas.

Our focus will shift to the west this evening as storms organize
along the dryline and the western extent of the morning outflow
boundary. These storms will move eastward through the evening with
shortwave energy embedded in zonal flow aloft. Linear organization
is likely as these storms head east. Damaging winds and large
hail will be the primary hazards, but a brief tornado or two
within the line will be possible. Storm chances will decrease
from west to east during the day Friday with subsident air on the
back side of the departing system. However, the atmosphere may
have time to recover during the afternoon, so we will not take
out PoPs completely. Models continue to show a low chance of
showers and storms Friday evening/overnight with subtle shortwave
energy moving through northwest flow aloft. We will maintain some
low PoPs (20%-40%) to account for this, but most locations will
escape additional rainfall Friday night.

Plenty of clouds and rain-cooled air will keep high temperatures
generally below seasonal normals this afternoon and Friday with
lower and middle 80s. Lows tonight will range from the middle 60s
to around 70.

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Saturday Through The Upcoming Week/

An unsettled pattern will continue through the upcoming weekend,
with convective activity mainly concentrated along two regions
across our area. The first of which will be along our western
counties as dryline convection continues to propagate to the east
overnight, with the second being along the Red River and across
North Texas through the morning hours on both Saturday and Sunday.

Additional convection will push through portions of the region
once again through the start of next week as the pattern will
remain largely unchanged. With several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms moving through overnight into the morning hours each
day, strong to severe weather will be possible. Large hail and
damaging winds will be the main threats, with a very low chance
for tornadoes. Of course, these specific hazards will depend on a
variety of factors. Placement of surface boundaries and outflow
boundary interactions will largely influence the extent and
coverage of any severe weather. These features will be closely
monitored each day as real-time analysis and high-res model
guidance allow us to get a much better handle on potential hazards
through the upcoming days. Conversely, it is also possible that
mesoscale interactions lessen the severe threat - such as is the
case with outflow dominant, multi-cell thunderstorms that lack a
substantially strong cold pool. It`s difficult to nail these
specific mesoscale phenomena several days out, which only adds to
the emphasis to continue to remain weather aware through the next
several days as details can be further refined and the forecast
gains additional value. Furthermore, the threat for additional
flooding will remain in place through the start of next week as
well as heavy rainfall will be possible at times. It won`t take
much to cause issues, so stay on your feet for additional flooding.

A potential pattern shift may be on the horizon, which would
lessen our chances for showers and thunderstorms considerably.
This would also lead to an increase in afternoon highs, with
temperatures gradually climbing through the end of next week. This
is the direct result of the mid level ridge currently located
across our west strengthening and pushing more into the
Central/Southern Plains. This will effectively cut off the
unsettled pattern that we`ve been in as of late, or at least slow
it down considerably. Our attention will begin to turn toward the
potential heat, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s and
dewpoints lingering in the low to mid 70s. This could result in
heat indices reaching between 100 to 105 through the end of the
week, which may begin to cause issues related to heat illness.

Reeves

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1150 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

Thunderstorm timing will be the primary concern to aviation with
this forecast. Scattered storms currently over D10 will continue
off and on through early this afternoon. Most storms will move to
the east with a passing shortwave energy later this afternoon,
leaving most of the evening storm-free. The next round of storms
will develop across West Texas late this afternoon/evening. The
best window of time for the storms to impact all TAF sites will be
between 05Z and 10Z. Strong and gusty winds, heavy rain and even
some hail will be likely with the overnight storms. Most of the
thunderstorm activity will move east of the TAF sites after 12Z.

Mainly MVFR ceilings late this morning will lift above 3000 ft by
mid-afternoon with VFR expected once the storms depart later this
afternoon. MVFR ceilings will return with the line of storms
overnight.

A south to southeast wind will remain in the 5 to 12 knot range
through Friday morning, except for gusty and erratic winds in and
near any thunderstorm.

79

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    68  83  71  86  72 /  70  60  30  40  20
Waco                68  82  70  85  72 /  60  60  20  50  10
Paris               67  79  67  84  69 /  80  80  50  40  20
Denton              66  81  68  86  70 /  70  70  30  40  20
McKinney            67  81  69  85  71 /  70  70  40  40  20
Dallas              68  82  71  87  72 /  70  60  30  40  20
Terrell             68  81  69  85  71 /  70  70  30  50  20
Corsicana           70  83  72  86  73 /  60  70  30  50  10
Temple              68  84  71  86  72 /  50  70  20  50  10
Mineral Wells       67  82  69  86  71 /  80  50  30  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Friday evening for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123.

&&

$$