247
FXUS64 KFWD 310054
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
754 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Friday Night/

As one complex of storms moves away from our region, the next one
has already developed in the Texas Panhandle with its eyes set on
North and Central Texas.

Prior to the arrival of the next complex of storms, cloudy to
mostly cloudy skies are ongoing as anvil clouds continue to
overspread our region, both from the earlier storms and the storms
in West Texas. A few additional storms have developed within the
anvil region near Abilene, signaling the continued strong ascent
currently in place.

The next storm complex is now crossing I-40 in the Texas
Panhandle, moving toward the southeast. Although the current
state of the atmosphere if fairly worked over due to the earlier
storms, some modification is expected over the next few hours. One
such change will be the strengthening of the low-level jet. In
the next few hours, the 925-850mb winds will become aligned from
southeast to northwest, supplying better moisture coupled with
enhancing ascent atop the cold pool already generated in the Texas
Panhandle. In addition to the wind enhancements, the 00Z weather
balloon sampled ~7.5 C/km lapse rates with nearly 1000 J/kg of
MUCAPE. All that to say, we`ll likely be dealing with yet another
line of storms approaching our northwestern counties around
midnight and moving east through the early morning hours. Latest
guidance suggest the I-35 corridor may have the line of storms
approaching around 2-5 AM and exiting our eastern counties by 9
AM. Damaging winds, large hail and flash flooding will once again
be the main threats. The overall tornado probability will remain
low.

After the morning storms shift east of our area, it appears we
may see additional storms develop across Central Texas early in
the afternoon. Although widespread severe storms are not expected,
a few strong to severe storms will be possible. The main hazards
would include large hail, damaging winds and flash flooding. Any
afternoon storms would shift east by the evening.

Temperatures tomorrow will vary greatly depending on the
evolution of tonight/tomorrow`s MCSs. Highs are likely to remain
in the lower 80s, however, those that see rain the majority of the
day will struggle to make it out of the 70s.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 238 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024/
/Saturday Through The Upcoming Week/

An unsettled pattern will continue through the upcoming weekend,
with convective activity mainly concentrated along two regions
across our area. The first of which will be along our western
counties as dryline convection continues to propagate to the east
overnight, with the second being along the Red River and across
North Texas through the morning hours on both Saturday and Sunday.

Additional convection will push through portions of the region
once again through the start of next week as the pattern will
remain largely unchanged. With several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms moving through overnight into the morning hours each
day, strong to severe weather will be possible. Large hail and
damaging winds will be the main threats, with a very low chance
for tornadoes. Of course, these specific hazards will depend on a
variety of factors. Placement of surface boundaries and outflow
boundary interactions will largely influence the extent and
coverage of any severe weather. These features will be closely
monitored each day as real-time analysis and high-res model
guidance allow us to get a much better handle on potential hazards
through the upcoming days. Conversely, it is also possible that
mesoscale interactions lessen the severe threat - such as is the
case with outflow dominant, multi-cell thunderstorms that lack a
substantially strong cold pool. It`s difficult to nail these
specific mesoscale phenomena several days out, which only adds to
the emphasis to continue to remain weather aware through the next
several days as details can be further refined and the forecast
gains additional value. Furthermore, the threat for additional
flooding will remain in place through the start of next week as
well as heavy rainfall will be possible at times. It won`t take
much to cause issues, so stay on your feet for additional flooding.

A potential pattern shift may be on the horizon, which would
lessen our chances for showers and thunderstorms considerably.
This would also lead to an increase in afternoon highs, with
temperatures gradually climbing through the end of next week. This
is the direct result of the mid level ridge currently located
across our west strengthening and pushing more into the
Central/Southern Plains. This will effectively cut off the
unsettled pattern that we`ve been in as of late, or at least slow
it down considerably. Our attention will begin to turn toward the
potential heat, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s and
dewpoints lingering in the low to mid 70s. This could result in
heat indices reaching between 100 to 105 through the end of the
week, which may begin to cause issues related to heat illness.

Reeves

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

Concerns...MVFR and TS moves in tonight. Improvements expected
tomorrow morning in North Texas. Additional TS possible in Central
Texas.

Additional storms are ongoing across West Texas and the Texas
Panhandle, moving toward North and Central Texas. These storms are
expected to reach the D10 and KACT terminals after midnight,
bringing another round of heavy rain. There will be another risk
of severe weather as this line moves through, mainly damaging
winds and large hail.

In addition to the TSRA, low ceilings will precede the line. The
current expectation is for ceilings to remain around FL025,
dropping to a brief period of IFR as storms are ongoing. VFR is
expected to return across North Texas closer to noon.

Thunderstorms will move east of the TAF sites within 1-2 hours of
their arrival, leaving behind continued rain showers, especially
across Central Texas. Another round of TS may develop in the
afternoon in Central Texas, however, confidence of this happening
remains too low to include in the TAF at this time. Adjustments
will be made in the coming forecasts.

Hernandez

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    69  83  71  86  72 /  80  40  10  40  20
Waco                68  82  71  85  72 /  70  70  20  50  10
Paris               65  80  67  84  69 /  60  40  20  40  20
Denton              67  81  66  86  70 /  90  30  20  40  20
McKinney            68  81  68  85  71 /  80  30  20  40  20
Dallas              69  83  71  87  72 /  80  40  10  40  20
Terrell             68  81  69  85  71 /  60  50  10  50  20
Corsicana           69  83  71  86  73 /  60  70  10  50  10
Temple              69  82  71  86  72 /  70  80  10  50  10
Mineral Wells       67  81  68  86  71 /  80  50  10  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Friday evening for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123.

&&

$$