Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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158 FXUS64 KFWD 250613 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 113 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Today and Sunday/ Mid level heights will slowly build today in response to a strong northern stream shortwave trough dropping south into the Intermountain West, which will then lift out across the Central and Northern Plains tonight. This will result in increased subsidence with a strengthening cap aloft outside of the Big Country into the Red River Valley and points north. This will mean a drier day overall with continued above normal temperatures and tropical- like humidity across the entire area. Highs will be in the lower 90s with dew point values in the 70s. This will put much of Central Texas right around 105 degrees, which is borderline Heat Advisory criteria and usually these are done when consecutive days of excessive heat conditions are expected. A last minute decision will be made regarding any heat highlights. A few CAMs are showing that the capping inversion may be weak enough for widely scattered, strong to severe discrete storms by early evening across the far northwest and Red River counties. This would be a very "conditional" risk wholly dependent on heating and being grazed by better large-scale ascent to the north. If a storm or two were to go up, high surface-based instability and 50 kt westerly deep layer shear could result in a brief 2-3 hour window during the early evening hours up across that area of the CWA. Very steep mid level lapse rates will remain confined west of here and combined with strengthening CINH east toward I-35, intensity and life-span of any storms would be much more short-lived than in previous days. We`ll continue to refine these low (10%-25%) rain chances in forecasts as we move through the morning hours into midday today. Otherwise, a breezy and warm night tonight with stratus mainly impacting Central and East Texas Sunday morning thanks to a strong, but more veered LLJ > 40 kts overnight. The shortwave trough lifting across the Plains toward the Great Lakes and Mississippi River Valley on Sunday will help mid level heights slowly fall across North Texas particularly. The main problem for storm coverage and development would be the continued cap around, as well as only a weak surface trough moving from the west. For now, I`ll have an isolated, late day chances across areas north of I-20. Again, another very "conditional" day and if a storm can go up, then reaching strong to severe limits wouldn`t be too hard to achieve. High temperatures will push the century mark for a few areas and this would match up with a few records achieved during the infamous heatwave of 1980. Something to watch. However, the eastward progressing trough (or dryline) will help to drop dew points much lower than seen the past week, so at least heat indices and humidity would be more tolerable to an extent. The main thing to keep in mind for the holiday weekend is to stay hydrated, wear light weight and colored clothing, and take frequent breaks from the outdoors when possible. 05/Marty && .LONG TERM... /Issued 310 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024/ /Next Week/ A brief rain-free interlude will begin the week before a more active pattern returns. A shortwave transiting the Central Plains on Sunday will drag a dryline deep into North and Central Texas, potentially reaching the I-35 corridor. However, a strong cap and the lack of upper support will keep the radar scope quiet. Areas to the west of the boundary will see temperatures soar into the mid and upper 90s, but with noticeably lower humidity. Areas to the east will have lower afternoon temperatures, but the humidity will push heat index values back above 100. As the Central Plains disturbance departs, it will allow a late- season front to push south of the Red River. Thunderstorm chances may return as early as Monday evening as the front moves deeper into the region. Cooler, albeit near-normal, daytime temperatures will return by Tuesday with even milder temperatures following during the cloudier latter half of the week. Although the boundary will experience gradual frontolysis, daily storm chances will prevail the remainder of the week as periodic disturbances glide along the northern periphery of a subtropical ridge. This seasonal anticyclone will remain anchored over Mexico as meteorological summer begins next weekend. Its transition to a more poleward latitude, which brings an end to our spring rainy season, typically occurs closer to the solstice, which is still weeks away. 25 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /06z TAFs/ Challenges will be deteriorating flight rules at all airports (particularly the western D10...AFW, FTW, DFW, as well as ACT) after 09z-11z this morning. BL cooling during this time will result in cigs dropping into low MVFR BLO 020, then IFR with patchy MVFR/BR Vsbys between 12z-15z. D10 airports will be a slow improvement back to MVFR by midday, with VFR thereafter. SE winds less than 10 kts will drop to 3-5 kts at sunrise, before increasing from the SSE 10 to 15 kts after 18z and continuing through Saturday evening with gusts to between 25-30 kts. Though isolated strong-severe TS are anticipated from just NW of the D10 to the Red River, confidence and coverage remain too low to introduce into the later TAF periods attm. 05/Marty && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 72 93 76 99 73 / 50 10 20 20 5 Waco 73 92 75 94 71 / 40 0 10 5 5 Paris 69 88 73 91 68 / 40 10 30 20 10 Denton 72 92 75 97 68 / 30 20 20 20 5 McKinney 72 90 76 95 71 / 40 20 20 20 5 Dallas 72 93 76 99 73 / 50 10 20 20 5 Terrell 71 90 74 93 72 / 50 5 30 10 5 Corsicana 74 92 74 95 74 / 60 0 20 10 5 Temple 74 92 74 94 73 / 40 0 10 5 5 Mineral Wells 71 94 74 98 68 / 20 20 20 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$