Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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630 FXUS64 KFWD 270023 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 723 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Tonight through Monday Night/ A warm and humid airmass remains in place across much of North Texas this evening although a weak front/dryline is slowly pushing south into the region. While it`s not considerably cooler behind this boundary, it is much drier with dewpoints in the 40s across northwest parts of the CWA. This boundary will push south of I-20 in the next few hours before stalling out late this evening. Overnight tonight, light winds and humid conditions can be expected, particularly south of I-20 and may result in some patchy fog. On Monday, we`ll see a resurgence of moisture back to the north along with temperatures 5-7 degrees above normal. By peak afternoon heating, the atmosphere across North and Central TX will become uncapped and strongly unstable with mixed layer CAPE exceeding 5000 J/kg. Low level winds will initially be weak, but modest mid and upper level flow will be supportive of semi- organized convection should storms be able to develop. Mid and upper level forcing will be weak but isolated convection may develop by late afternoon/evening across parts of the region. Any storms that develop would generally be capable of very large hail and perhaps a tornado or two. Convection may persist into the late evening hours before diminishing overnight. Coverage of thunderstorms on Monday afternoon/evening would be around 20% or less. Dunn && .LONG TERM... /Issued 322 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024/ /Monday Night into the weekend/ With a mid/upper-level ridge building over the western U.S. and consolidating lows/troughs over the Great Lakes, North and Central Texas will be on the southern fringe of a northwest flow pattern by late Monday. Regional models and high-resolution CAMs show rain chances may return as early as Monday evening as a cold front continues to slowly move across the region. This will kick-off the next multi-day period of unsettled weather across North and Central Texas. Daily thunderstorm complexes are expected to develop across the High Plains in response to a series of subtle shortwaves/perturbations embedded along the northern periphery of the larger scale ridge. Convection will spread eastward nightly, bringing periodic rain and storm chances to the region through the end of the week. The pattern will become increasingly messy as the week wears on as mesoscale features evolve. This lowered predictability has resulted in some broad-brushing of PoPs, especially mid/late week. The main change with this forecast update will be the introduction of slight chance (20% of less) PoPs after 00Z Tuesday (7 PM Monday) generally near and west of the I-35 corridor. As the backdoor front temporarily stalls over the region late Monday, the moist/unstable and briefly uncapped airmass south of the front will be primed for storm development with the potential for severe weather given the 50 kts of available effective shear. A strengthening low level jet during the evening will also enhance moisture advection and isentropic ascent through the overnight period. If storms develop, all severe hazards will be possible. By Thursday into Friday, the front should lift back northward as a warm front, repositioning the warm/moist airmass more directly overhead and fueling thunderstorm development through the end of the week and into the weekend. With PWATs approaching 1.75 to 2 inches at times, periods of locally heavy rainfall are likely. Due to lingering moist soils, localized flooding issues may also emerge, especially wherever higher convective rain rates occur. Temperatures will be fairly steady throughout the week though tempered slightly by the expected cloud cover and precipitation. Highs will generally be in the 80s to lower 90s with lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s. 12 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ VFR will prevail through the late evening with a weak boundary pushing through the D10 airspace at this time. A weak wind shift to the north is expected this evening with winds gradually becoming more easterly overnight. There is some potential for fog at Waco during the early morning hours, but VFR should prevail through much of the afternoon outside of any convective areas that may develop. Dunn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 72 95 72 89 69 / 0 10 20 40 60 Waco 72 93 72 89 69 / 0 20 20 40 60 Paris 67 92 67 85 66 / 10 0 20 30 50 Denton 67 95 69 88 67 / 0 5 20 40 60 McKinney 69 93 70 87 68 / 0 5 20 40 60 Dallas 73 95 72 90 69 / 0 10 20 40 60 Terrell 71 93 70 88 68 / 5 10 20 40 50 Corsicana 75 94 72 91 70 / 5 20 20 40 50 Temple 73 95 72 90 68 / 0 20 20 40 50 Mineral Wells 67 95 70 89 67 / 0 10 20 50 70 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ135-145>148-158>162- 174-175. && $$