765
FXUS63 KGLD 091955
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
155 PM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There are a few chances for storms in Eastern Colorado during
  the evening hours on Monday, with a low chance for a severe
  storm or two.

- Potential break in the active weather pattern mid week with
  near triple digit high temperatures.

- Next system looks to impact the area Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 154 PM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Early this afternoon an upper level ridge was centered over the Four
Corners Region.  Various areas of cloud cover were rotating around
the ridge.  There continued to be a corridor of low clouds on the
western edge of the high pressure over Eastern CO.

This afternoon a very pleasant day will continue with the light
east to southeast winds.

Tonight the winds will turn to the south as the surface ridge
continues to move east over Nebraska.  Over night low clouds, and
possibly some fog, may form over Eastern CO in response to the
moisture advection.  Any fog will be confined to CO.

Monday will be another very pleasant day.  The ridge currently to
the west will shift slightly to the east as it moves over the
forecast area.  Due to the south winds, WAA will be stronger
allowing for temperatures to be warmer than today.

Monday evening a weak upper level short wave trough will move
through Nebraska, dipping down into the forecast area.  Isentropic
analysis does not show much for lifting/forcing with this short wave
trough.  At the same time the instability will be declining as the
sun sets.  Deep layer shear is 20 kts, which may support strong to
low end severe thunderstorms.  Confidence is 20% for strong to
severe thunderstorms to form due to the rather weak deep layer shear
in place and the declining instability. The upper level short
wave trough will fill as it moves through the forecast area.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 154 PM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Tuesday through Sunday the upper level ridge builds over the
forecast area then to the east.  During this timeframe upper level
short wave troughs will move over the forecast area.  However the
environment will be too dry for storms to form until Thursday.
Precipitation chances return during the latter half of the week as
upper level short wave troughs move through.

The strongest upper level short wave trough looks to move through
Saturday based on the latest data.  There has not been much change
in the upper air weather pattern in comparison to the prior model
run. However this is two days later in the week than what was shown
a few days ago.  Confidence is still on the low side regarding
timing, however this does raise confidence overall regarding a
stronger upper level short wave trough moving through during the end
of the week.  When this trough moves through the Plains, confidence
is on the high side there will be severe weather occurring as a
result.

As the ridged builds to the east temperatures will warm through the
week.  Highs reaching 100 degrees may occur.  A cool front will move
through toward the end of the week with the upper level short wave
trough.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1135 AM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024

VFR to MVFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Light winds today
will continue. Tonight there may be LLWS for KGLD and KMCK
around 6z. There does not look to be much of a change in the
wind direction until toward 12z. During this time low clouds,
maybe even fog, will approach Goodland from the west. Some model
data has the clouds down to IFR levels at Goodland. KMCK will
be well east of the fog/low clouds.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JTL