072
FXUS63 KGLD 011142
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
542 AM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Active pattern continues through the weekend as weather
  systems moves through during the late afternoon through
  overnight hours from west to east. Severe weather and locally
  excessive rainfall threats continue.

- A less active weather pattern develops Monday through Friday
  with above normal high temperatures in the 80s and for some
  90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 308 AM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024

This morning, the showers from earlier this evening have finally
pushed out of the area. Cloud cover is beginning to clear from west
to east. However, fog development has become more likely for the
eastern half of the area with winds from the east and continued
moisture advection. The showers and storms did interrupt the fog
with Hill city going from 1/4 to 5 mile visibility, but there is a
good chance the fog will thicken again and persist until after
sunrise.

By the noon hour, skies should be mostly clear across the area with
temperatures beginning to warm into the 80`s. Will need to watch the
early afternoon hours for storm development as convective
temperature is forecast to be around the mid 80`s which could fire
off storms as early as 1pm MT. Otherwise, the main driver for storms
looks to be a shortwave moving through the zonal flow from west to
east this evening. This shortwave looks to be a little more
pronounced which well help storms move all the way across the area.

For today`s severe weather chances, the initial storms that form
will have the best chance of producing hail up to 2.5 inches similar
to yesterday`s storms over the Palmer Divide. As storms progress
east and cluster, the threat for hail above 2 inches should
decrease, but hail above an inch and wind gusts up to 70 mph will be
possible pretty much across the area. A tornado or two could be
possible with a well organized storm, but low level shear and
vorticity continues to be forecast to be a bit on the low side. In
regard to flooding, flooding chances will be low unless storms train
over an area or unless a long lived supercell can develop. The
bunkers right motion is forecast to only be 5-10 kts compared to the
downshear and mean wind around 25-35 kts which would increase the
risk for prolonged heavy rain and flooding.

For tonight, storms should move out within a few hours of midnight
unless supercells linger. After that, will need to watch for fog
again as winds may initially have an easterly component. However,
winds should be more southerly closer to sunrise with a surface low
closer to the area which will lower fog chances.

Tomorrow, a bit more of a pronounced trough is forecast to move
through the Rockies and through the area. This will push the surface
low closer to the area by the afternoon hours, and then through
later in the day. With the strong southerly to southwesterly winds
ahead of the front, temperatures are forecast to be relatively hot
with highs reaching the low 90`s. The winds could also bring in some
drier air from the west which would begin to lower dewpoints into
the 30`s for Eastern Colorado. Given recent rains, am not currently
to concerned with the potential for explosive fire growth, however
critical conditions could be met.

For the later afternoon and evening hours, storms are forecast to
fire up again with the surface low advancing and a dryline in
Eastern Colorado. Any area behind the dryline will be unlikely to
see storms fire up. For the rest of the area, all severe hazards are
possible again, though will need to see how much dry air intrudes
into the area as the flooding threat may be less likely. Will need
to watch for wind gusts above 75 mph with DCAPE forecast to be above
1500 J/KG and a potential clustering of storms or a line of storms.

Monday, the zonal flow is forecast to set up over the area again
while a broad area of low pressure lingers along the Front Range.
With little to no cold air advection following the prior day,
temperatures are forecast to remain hot around 90. Storms will still
be possible Monday, but the forecasted intrusion of more dry air has
chances currently below 20%.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 108 AM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Upper-level northwesterly flow will dominate majority of the long-
term period as a high pressure system will set up near the Great
Basin region and remain there through next weekend. This will have
temperatures warm into the mid 80s through mid 90s. It will also
allow mid-level shortwaves to give us chances at precipitation, but
PoPs are low (<20) due to a lack of moisture. Low temperatures will
cool into the mid 50s to low 60s. Each day of the long-term looks
very similar the other under this persistent pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 525 AM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024

For KGLD... Fog is burning off and should not return with
southwesterly winds at the surface. VFR conditions is forecast
for the remainder of the period, though there is a 10% chance
for fog tonight. As long as the winds are from the south to
southwest tonight, fog is not expected to form. Otherwise, the
other main concern is the potential for storms this afternoon
and evening. The best time for storms is around 23Z, but there
is a 15% chance that storms could form as early as 19Z. Storms
could be severe with very large hail and wind gusts to 70 mph.

For KMCK... Fog and mist continue to oscillate at the site
between IFR and MVFR conditions. The forecast looked favorable
for 1/4sm, but may need to amend if it doesn`t materialize in
the next hour. Otherwise, ceilings could remain around a few
hundred feet through most of the morning hours. The afternoon
hours should be VFR with little concern for storms, but starting
00Z and especially be 02Z is when storm chances increase. The
storms could be severe with large hail and wind gusts to 70 mph.
Otherwise, VFR conditions should persist the rest of the period
after the storms, but will need to watch for a low chance
(20-30%) of fog.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 320 AM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Flooding concerns linger into the weekend. However, chances have
lowered a tad compared to previous days as yesterday`s storms
generally produced around an inch or less of rain. Soil moisture
is now forecast to generally be 50% or less across the area.

For today`s storms, they could produce heavy rain or a small
hail and rain mix, but they should be moving quick enough to
limit additional rainfall to 1.5 inches or less. The exception
will be if a supercell develops and persists as the forecast
speed of supercells later is very slow at 10 mph or less. This
could lead to heavy rainfall in a concentrated area.

For tomorrow`s storms, the overall chance is low unless storms
cluster. Otherwise, fairly fast storm movement and the addition
of some dry air will limit flooding potential.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ this morning
     for KSZ001>004-013>016-028-029.
CO...None.
NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ this morning
     for NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...KAK
HYDROLOGY...KAK