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000
FXUS63 KGLD 191740
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1140 AM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow is likely Friday night and Saturday morning for
  areas north of Interstate 70 in Colorado and north of
  Interstate 70 and west of Highway 27 in Kansas and Nebraska. A
  trace to two inches of wet snow will be possible in those
  areas.

- Near to above average temperatures are forecast for Sunday and
  beyond. There could be daily small chances for rain/storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 129 AM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Current satellite observations show the area under zonal flow aloft,
with cloud cover across a majority of the area. There are a few
radar echos in the area, but returns are low and dewpoint
depressions remain around 10+ degrees near the surface so
precipitation for the remainder of the night is unlikely.

For today, a mix of clouds and sunshine is forecast as mid level
moisture around 700-500mb is forecast to continue to stream into the
area from the west. But with zonal flow otherwise and high pressure
across the surface, no precipitation is forecast through the
daylight hours. Highs should be able to climb into the mid to upper
50`s as long as there are some breaks in the clouds. For areas where
cloud cover holds (more likely north of Highway 36) temperatures
will stay stuck in the 40`s similar to yesterday.

This evening and into tonight, a shortwave is forecast to rotate
through the Plains around the larger upper low over Eastern Canada.
As it moves through, it is forecast to produce a frontogenetical
band of precipitation. Current timing is mainly between 03-12Z,
but could start as soon as 00Z. The thing to watch with this
band is how cold does the surface get and how low the dewpoint
is. If dewpoints are around 30 degrees by sunset, then most of
the precipitation would fall as rain or a very wet snow.
However, if the dewpoints are more around the mid 20`s or less,
snow would become more likely with evaporative cooling bringing
temperatures down to freezing or colder. Temperatures would be
unlikely to drop below freezing otherwise as the better cold air
advection would favor Central Nebraska and Central Kansas and
the cloud cover would inhibit radiational cooling. As long as
the precipitation remains mostly rain (80% chance), little to no
impacts are forecast as snow accumulations would be minimal or
not existent, especially with soil temps in the 50`s. However,
if the air cooled enough and snow became the dominant type
quickly during the evening hours, then there is a chance for a
band of snow that could produce 3 to 5 inches. The reason why
the chance is currently low on the greater snow scenario (~20%
chance) is that the band may not stay over one area on top of
the temperature issues listed prior. Even in ideal scenarios,
there is also a chance that the forcing as a whole is too weak
with just some patchy 3 inch snow totals. The snow chances would
favor counties near the Tri-State border. The band (of rain or
snow) if it forms however looks to currently favor around
Highway 36. If the band of rain does form, half an inch or even
slightly greater amounts are possible.

Tomorrow, cloud cover is forecast to linger through most of the day
with a relatively saturated air column. Precipitation chances should
taper through the morning as the forcing dissipates while the
shortwave moves off to the east. With high pressure over the area
and cloud cover, temperatures are forecast to stay in the 40`s
across most of the area, with a few upper 30`s along Highway 34
possible. Some locales along and south of Highway 40 could see some
50`s if the higher pressure shifts more to the east and cloud cover
breaks during the morning hours.

Sunday, more mild and average temperatures are forecast as upper
ridging begins to move over more the area. As long as the cloud
cover breaks during the day, most locales should reach highs in the
60`s. Locales along and east of Highway 83 may stay in the 50`s
depending on how fast the higher pressure and cloud cover shift
east.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 135 AM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Monday...the forecast area is under northwest flow aloft with a
weakening 500mb low moving out of Canada and into the northern
plains overnight. Surface winds slowly become northerly through the
day become with gusts of 20 to 30 mph. Northerly winds gusting 20 to
30 mph continue overnight as high pressure builds into the area from
the north. High temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 70s to
lower 80s with low temperatures in the middle 30s to middle 40s.
There`s enough moisture (primarily in the 700-500mb layer) to
support NBM pops in the 20% range in the afternoon for a few
rain showers with 20%-50% chances for showers and thunderstorms
overnight.

Tuesday...upper level ridging is forecast to move over the area from
the west, in between low pressure systems over the northeast and
southwest parts of the country. Dry weather is anticipated during
the day with increasing chances (20%-30%) for light rain showers
overnight as a batch of moisture in the 850-500mb layer moves off
the Colorado rockies and into the area. High temperatures are
forecast to be in the middle to upper 60s with low temperatures in
the middle 30s to around 40. Northerly winds gusting 20 to 30 mph
continue during the day, becoming southerly overnight with gusts up
to 30 mph across far eastern Colorado.

Wednesday...this mornings ECMWF/GEM and yesterdays GFS/ECMWF show
the 500mb flow nearly zonal with low pressure systems off the coast
of California, approaching the Pacific Northwest and northeast part
of the country. This mornings GFS/GEFS models have a little more
amplified ridging over the area with a low pressure area moving
ashore in California. Not much confidence in any one solution at
this point so no changes anticipated. The forecast is currently
calling for high temperatures in the 70s with low temperatures in
the 40s. Additionally, there is a 20% chance for light rain showers
during the day with a 20%-50% chance for showers and thunderstorms
overnight. Southerly winds gusting 25 to 35 mph are forecast during
the day and into the evening before slowly decreasing.

Thursday...generally speaking, the 500mb flow becomes southwesterly
ahead of some kind of troughing to our west and/or southwest. There
may be a dryline somewhere in the vicinity of Highway 25 or 27 in
the afternoon which may focus chances (20%-40%) for afternoon
showers and thunderstorms which then slowly lift north/northeast
after midnight. Once again, breezy southeast to southwesterly winds
are anticipated during the day, slowly decreasing overnight while
veering to the southwest and west. High temperatures are forecast to
be in the middle 70s to middle 80s with low temperatures in the
middle 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1137 AM MDT Fri Apr 19 2024

VFR expected to prevail through this afternoon at both KGLD and
KMCK. Tonight, light rain will develop during the evening hours
in a narrow band centered around KGLD. Expect lowered ceiling
and minor visibility restrictions during that time. Overnight,
rain will mix with or change to light snow at KGLD, continuing
through Saturday morning, with IFR ceilings likely as well as
visibility restrictions. Precipitation will hold off at KMCK
until Saturday morning or possibly even Saturday afternoon.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...024