435
FXUS63 KGLD 270857
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
257 AM MDT Mon May 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Relatively mild conditions with highs around 80 and winds
  generally below 10-15 mph are forecast for Memorial Day and
  Tuesday. A few non-severe, showers and storms are possible
  during the evening hours both days.

- Warm and active pattern is expected next week, with chances
  for storms bringing an associated flooding risk.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 255 AM MDT Mon May 27 2024

For Memorial Day, a pleasant day is in store for the area. With an
upper ridge beginning to build into the area and relatively weak
flow, mild temperatures in the upper 70`s and light winds generally
below 10 mph are forecast for today. There could be a few sprinkles
and shower tonight with some mid-level moisture moving over the
area. The question is if there is too much dry air at the surface
for anything to hit the ground. Lows tonight will drop into the 40`s
with mostly calm winds.

Tomorrow, the upper ridge axis is forecast to move further east into
the Rockies with a little more influence over the area. Winds are
forecast to shift to out of the southeast during the day and begin
bringing in moisture into the area. With the mid level moisture
remaining over the area, the daytime hours are forecast to see
partly cloud skies and maybe a few sprinkles. Highs are forecast to
reach the low 80`s. Showers and storms become more likely in the
late afternoon and evening hours as moisture continues to advect
into the area and a small disturbance possibly moves through the
flow. At best, it looks like a cluster of storms could form in
Eastern Colorado and move east, along and south of I-70. Severe
weather isn`t expected and the storms may move through a small
portion of the area if they form at all. Winds will calm going into
the night and skies clear with lows dropping to around 50.

Wednesday, the upper ridge axis is forecast to be over the area.
While this would generally favor temperatures warming to the mid to
upper 80`s, cloud cover may prevent heating to potential as guidance
suggests a fair amount of low level moisture may be present by
Wednesday. With the moisture over the area and broad low pressure
forecast to form along the Front Range, storms could fire up in
Eastern Colorado during the afternoon and evening hours. These
storms would have the potential to be marginally severe with
forecasted CAPE around 1000-1500 J/KG and effective shear around 40
kts. However, instability would be lacking a bit if cloud cover does
linger across most of the region during the day. The storms would
also struggle to enter NW Kansas and SW Nebraska with low
instability and no synoptic forcing as you go east. Wed night would
then see a mix of clouds and clear skies with storm chances
dropping. Winds may remain a bit more elevated around 15 to 20 kts
with the low pressure to the west of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 143 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024

Following the holiday, a more active pattern returns, anticipated to
bring some moisture into the region over the work week. While
the upper ridge moves over the Rockies on Tuesday, an embedded
disturbance will move through from the southwest, introducing
slight chance to chance PoPs by afternoon, continuing into the
evening and overnight period. The upper ridge will move over the
Plains mid- week, and an upper trough will enter the western
CONUS. This will shove the ridge eastward and prompt shower/
storm development by Wednesday afternoon-evening. During the
latter part of the work week, the upper low swings across the
western Canada/US border, generating additional waves as it does
so, allowing better chances for showers/storms.

With the daily chances for thunderstorms generally moving off the
high terrain to our west in the Tuesday through Friday timeframe,
there is some potential for severe/flooding threats as ample shear,
instability, and moisture (PWATs towards 1+ inch) is available. WPC
has included parts of the area in a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall Tuesday (far southern portions of the CWA), Wednesday
(entire area), and Thursday (most of the area east of the CO/KS
border).

Heading into the weekend, there is lesser forecast confidence;
however, the current forecast includes slight chance showers/
storms as a disturbance is anticipated to move through on the
backside of the upper trough. Flow aloft then becomes
increasingly zonal as the trough continues off to the east and
it appears upstream ridging begins building in, potentially
bringing a warming trend and some hotter temperatures to the
region at the start of June.

Regarding temperatures, highs are forecast generally in the upper
70s to middle 80s, slightly cooler at the end of the work week/start
of the next weekend. Overnight lows are forecast generally in the
upper 40s to 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 940 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024

KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A light
and variable wind at taf issuance will continue through 13z.
From 14z-01z, northwest winds under 10kts veer to the north
then northeast at similar speeds. After 02z, winds continue to
veer to the northeast then east at speeds under 10kts.

KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A light
and variable wind at taf issuance will continue through 13z.
From 14z-00z, a northwest to northerly wind at speeds up to
11kts is expected. After 01z, winds veer to the northeast,
decreasing to around 5kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...99