Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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329 FXUS64 KHUN 042248 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 548 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 234 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Showers with a low chance of producing lightning are ongoing in northeastern AL and southern middle TN. These are forecast to continue NNE with a low-medium chance of redevelopment behind them as we move into the late afternoon to early evening hours. With any redevelopment, lightning chances will increase in response to diurnal heating. Model soundings have PWATs in the 1.7-1.8" range, which are meeting or exceeding the 90th percentile sounding climatology per BMX. In addition to this, DCAPE values are forecast to be 500-700 J/kg coupled with low level lapse rates around 7 C/km and around 25 kts of shear. Therefore, our main concerns later this evening will be heavy rainfall and gusty to damaging winds. Tonight, low chances of showers (30% or less) will continue through the morning hours. However, there will be a period of dry weather (less than 10% chances) for a large portion of the area between 23Z-04Z. A series of shortwaves will affect the region ahead of a cold front stemming from a sfc low pressure system in the Great Lakes region, reintroducing rain chances early Wednesday morning. More on that in the short term section below. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday Night) Issued at 234 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 The aforementioned cold front will continue eastward, bringing continued rain chances ahead of it through Thursday evening. Our greatest period of concern for this time is Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening, during which instability is increased in response to diurnal heating after our high temperatures climb into the mid to upper 80s under scattered cloud cover. Our low level lapse rates will climb into the 7-8 C/km range, supporting an increased lightning threat with any storm that develops. Our main concern at this time is flooding as PWATs continue to be in the 1.6-1.8" range with a potential for training. However, CAMs are hinting at storms failing to sustain themselves as they try to push east of I-65 Wednesday night. There is continued disagreement with the evolution of this system within CAMs, therefore, we have low confidence in the placement and timing of these storms. Storm chances decrease behind the cold front Thursday afternoon with sfc high pressure following behind it and subsequent dry weather. Low temperatures Thursday night are forecast to drop into the upper 60s to low 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Will remain under the influence of northwesterly flow aloft for the long term period, as Friday still looks dry in the wake of a cold front. High pressure will build to our northwest during the day, and afternoon highs will be on the "cool" side topping out in the low 80s. Trends have favored dry weather lasting through Saturday, as the first of a series of weaker shortwave disturbances has slowed down, remaining west of the area until Sunday morning. Temperatures will be similar on Saturday, topping out in the low 80s as clouds begin to gradually increase from the west into the evening hours. The aforementioned shortwave will help bring better moisture to the area, but will likely remain rain free until Sunday when a stronger trough digs into the Midwest, and rich Gulf moisture increases ahead of a cold front. Models diverge a bit at this range, but right now it looks like we will see at least low chances (20-30%) for rain and storms Sunday through Monday, though questions remain on if this will be one round or multiple depending on the evolution of the trough and associated front. Highs will remain near the mid 80s through Monday with lows in the 60s each night. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 548 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 The only threat to VFR conditions throughout the duration of the TAF period will be a low cloud deck moving in near sunrise Wednesday morning. The low cloud deck will likely yield several hours of MVFR ceilings at both terminals from just before sunrise likely eroding by mid morning. VFR conditions should prevail aside from with with generally SSW winds through the duration of the TAF period. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...HC SHORT TERM....HC LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...RAD