865
FXUS64 KHUN 032328 AAA
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
628 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Convective activity continues to develop W/SW of the area over
parts of MS in closer proximity to a weak upper shrtwv. Latest
guidance keeps much of these showers/tstms just west of the mid TN
Valley thru the afternoon hrs, although a few showers/tstms may
spread into parts of NW AL before the onset of the evening period.
As this lead upper shrtwv crosses into the area later tonight,
low to medium chances (30-50%) of showers/tstms are expected to
develop over much of the area, especially heading into early Tue
morning. Brief heavy rainfall will be the main threat with any of
these showers/tstms. Overnight temps will be similar to this
morning, with lows mainly in the mid/upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Increasing showers/tstms are expected Tue into Wed, as additional
weak upper shrtwvs traverse eastward across much of the region.
PWATs climbing to around 1.7-1.8 inches coupled with SBCAPE values
near 2-3K J/kg will result in the prob for multiple rounds of
heavy rainfall along with the potential for gusty outflow winds.
Minimal deep layer shear though should offset the prob for more
organized/stronger storms. Nevertheless, the potential for minor
flooding/ponding is possible thru mid week. High rain chances
(around 70-90%) are expected both Tue/Wed, with relatively medium
chances (50-60%) of showers/tstms possible Wed night, as buoyant
energy weakens just a bit. Given the increase in rainfall, highs
thru mid week look to trend more in the lower/mid 80s, while lows
thru Wed night remain predom in the mid/upper 60s. Rain chances
will begin to taper off to the S/E late Wed night, as a weak cold
front draped west to east drops into the Mid South/mid TN Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

By Thursday, the shortwave axis will be off the Atlantic Coast and a
sfc front will move its way through the area. This will bring an end
to showers and storms from north to south Thursday morning, but will
maintain low chance (20-30%) PoPs during the afternoon giving model
differences in timing at this range. Highs will be near seasonal
norms in the mid to upper 80s with clearing skies during the
afternoon. A stronger sfc front will arrive Friday, reinforcing dry
and cooler conditions as we head into the weekend. Temperatures will
be limited to the lower 80s Friday afternoon as sfc high pressure
drifts south. From there, we will stay under the influence of
northwest flow through the remainder of the long term forecast.
Overnight lows will be relatively chilly Friday night into Saturday
morning, falling into the upper 50s in the higher terrain and near 60
degrees elsewhere. Low chance PoPs (20-30%) will return late in the
weekend as a series of weak shortwaves are progged to move into the
area, also bringing better moisture. Expect highs in the low to mid
80s through the weekend with lows in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

VFR conditions were present at issuance. The storms from this
afternoon have since weakened, with lingering showers across the
local area. Low to medium (20-40%) chances for showers (and
possibly a storm) continues overnight. Shower and storm chances
then ramp up through Tuesday morning and especially by the
afternoon, when medium to high chances (60-80%) are forecast area-
wide. Slight reductions in VIS are possible in the heaviest
showers/storms. Patchy fog is possible late tonight into early
Tuesday morning as well, along with lower (MVFR) CIGs Tuesday
morning. Mostly VFR conditions are then anticipated by Tuesday
afternoon. Southerly winds will become light overnight, then
increase to be between 5-10 knots by early Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM....09
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...26