758
FXUS64 KHUN 120251
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
951 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight and Saturday)
Issued at 950 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

The radar is now clear of showers and thunderstorms that went
through this evening and in its wake is batches of cloud cover.
In between those clouds, patchy fog may develop and for those
that received rainfall today, could see patchy dense fog. All in
all, for fog safety, use caution when driving and leave extra
space between vehicles. Fog will dissipate with sunrise,
otherwise overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Tomorrow, and subsequent days in the short term, will be hot with
highs in the lower 90s as high pressure sticks around. With dewpoints
in the low to mid 70s, this will push Heat Index values into the
upper 90s to the lower 100s with a few locations reaching 105.
Coverage is not enough to issue a Heat Advisory at this time,
however trends will be monitored for any changes. Regardless, be
safe in the heat, and never leave people or pets in vehicles.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Monday night)
Issued at 950 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Not much has changed for the short term. The bottom line up front
remains heat focused with medium (40-60%) chances for showers and
thunderstorms each day.

High pressure will build across the Southeast this weekend into
early next week. This time it will not provide clear skies and dry
conditions. This dirty ridge with plenty of moisture in place
will keep low to medium (20-50% ) chances of showers and
thunderstorms in each day, mainly during the afternoon to early
evening hours. PWATS will be around 2" so heavy rainfall will be a
primary hazard and combined with weak steering flow of 10-20kts,
there could be nuisance hydro concerns. Shear is minimal so the
threat for severe weather is low, however some storms could
produce gusty winds 30-40 mph. A weakening cold front will slide
from the Midwest into the northern TN Valley on Monday but not
expected to make it into the forecast area at this time. Not much
relief with it anyway. However, if it does slide farther south,
could see an uptick in POPs, but kept with the NBM for this
forecast package.

Beyond the storms, heat will once again remain a primary weather
concern. Daytime highs Sunday and Monday will be in the lower 90s
but with dewpoints in the 70s, heat index values will climb
towards 105 both days. Coverage remains too low to consider a
Heat Advisory, however keep up to date with the latest forecast
for more. Regardless, practice heat safety and never leave people
or pets in vehicles and stay hydrated.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 950 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Bottom line up front - continued daily chances of showers and storms
as well as very hot conditions, possibly reaching Heat Advisory
criteria, through the next work week.

Upper level ridging will persist over the Southeast through the work
week; however, ripples of shortwaves look to traverse the
Mississippi Valley and east over the Ohio Valley. Additionally,
surface high pressure will dominate over the Appalachians down
through the northeastern Gulf. Thus, the summertime pattern continues
with daily chances of showers and storms (mainly in the afternoon
and evening) as well as hot and humid conditions.

Ample instability in the afternoons along with bulk shear below 20
knots will lead to general thunderstorms/downbursts that are typical
for this time of year. Although, instability values will allow for
the potential for some stronger storms capable of producing gusty
winds and frequent lightning. Moisture will remain elevated as well
and as such, showers/storms will be efficient rainfall producers. At
least nuisance flooding will be a concern for storms that move over
the same locations repeatedly. Overall, if you have outdoor plans,
remember storm and flood safety - when thunder roars, go indoors!
Turn around, don`t drown if you encounter flooded roads!

As we are in the middle of summer, it`s no surprise that it will
continue to be hot during the afternoons. Highs will mostly top out
in the lower to mid 90s each day, with lows in the lower to mid 70s
for most locations. This, combined with elevated moisture, will lead
to heat indices approaching Heat Advisory criteria each day, with
some spots possibly meeting that criteria. This will be monitored,
since more widespread coverage of showers/storms would potentially
dampen the heat a touch. Regardless if we issue a Heat Advisory or
not, heat safety will remain important for everybody. Make sure to
drink plenty of water, take breaks in the shade, and never leave a
person or pet in a vehicle!

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 727 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

There are a few remaining showers/storms over north-central
Alabama at present. However, this activity is expected to diminish
over the next hour or two with no rain forecast overnight. We`ll
need to monitor potential fog development once again, especially
for areas that saw rainfall earlier today. Confidence is currently
low whether this will affect the terminals and therefore, was not
mentioned in the TAFs. This will be reassessed with subsequent
updates and amendments. Another day with medium chances (30-40%)
of showers and storms is then anticipated on Saturday which may
result in reductions in VIS in the heavier showers/storms. Outside
of any storms, winds tonight will be light and variable then
become westerly at around 5 knots or so Saturday afternoon.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JMS
SHORT TERM....JMS
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...26