Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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096 FXUS64 KHUN 132347 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 647 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 220 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 An upper ridge over the Desert Southwest and southern Plains will begin to push eastward tonight. Surface high pressure will maintain its hold over the region as well. Overall, a fairly tranquil night is forecast as skies are expected to be mostly clear with light to calm winds. Moisture will also remain elevated, with forecast lows dipping into the mid to upper 60s and dew points in the 60s. Therefore, would not be surprised if patchy fog develops, especially for the more sheltered locations and near bodies of water. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday Night) Issued at 220 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 The aforementioned upper ridge will continue to make its way over the Southeastern US through Saturday. Model guidance indicates that a shortwave may progress over the central Plains and into the Midwest overnight Saturday and on Sunday. Surface high pressure will persist to start the short term; however, a dry, cold front looks to approach then move over the Tennessee Valley Saturday/Saturday night. While no rain or storms are anticipated with this feature, an ever so slight reduction in Saturday night lows as well as dew points are possible. Forecast highs Friday and Saturday afternoons are in the lower to mid 90s, with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Some midlevel cumulus are possible during the day on Friday, but skies are expected to be largely clear through Saturday night. The only other thing to note is with elevated moisture, light winds, and mostly clear skies Friday night, patchy fog development is again possible. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 421 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 The center of the subtropical ridge is predicted to begin shifting slowly northeastward and away from the TN Valley on Sunday, becoming centered across western portions of VA/NC by Monday. This (along with a surface ridge migrating eastward off the coast of New England) will result in a gradual increase in deep-layer SSE flow and atmospheric moisture content, which should support a minor increase in the coverage of diurnal showers and thunderstorms early next week. Although some deterministic and ensemble guidance indicates that this could occur as early as Sunday afternoon/evening, it currently appears as if our best opportunity for rainfall will be Monday afternoon/evening. Afternoon temperatures will peak in the upper 90s for many locations on Sunday (with a 100F reading or two possible), but it still appears as if heat index readings will be slightly below advisory criteria. Highs are currently expected to be several degrees cooler on Monday due to clouds and precip, but if this does not materialize, temps will need to be increased. During the period from Tuesday-Wednesday, global models suggest that our deep-layer SSE flow regime will be disrupted by a developing area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf/Bay of Campeche, and with more of an influence from the Bermuda ridge to our east, we expect hot/dry conditions to return. Fortunately, it appears as if the westward advection of a drier airmass into the region will limit heat index readings in this regime. Strong warming of lower-levels from Wednesday onward will likely support development of afternoon thunderstorms in regions of enhanced orographic ascent across the central/southern Appalachians on a daily basis, and with deep easterly flow predicted to the south of the subtropical high, some of this activity may eventually spill into northeast AL. However, we have maintained a dry forecast at this point. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 647 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 VFR conditions are forecast at both terminals through the TAF period. Mostly clear skies and light and variable winds are expected. Some patchy fog is possible overnight, but confidence is too low to include in TAFs at this time. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM....26 LONG TERM....70 AVIATION...25