849
FXUS64 KHUN 162359
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
659 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

High clouds will rapidly increase late this afternoon into this
evening as a lead shortwave impulse moves east through the
southern U.S. This impulse will arrive in MS and AL late tonight.
The LLJ will feed an MCS across LA into southern MS and AL.
Another area of more concentrated precipitation will occur across
the Ozarks into the OH valley along an elongated trough/shear
zone. So, our area looks to be "in between" heavier precipitation
areas. At this point, elevated instability appears it will be
limited, so will keep thunderstorm chances amongst the shower
chances low tonight. Overnight lows should be in the lower to
middle 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Sunday)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

A high PoP, lighter QPF scenario seems to be more favored for our
portion of the TN valley Friday into Saturday. The wave over
TX will slowly eject east along a track further south along the
Gulf Coast this model run. This will focus more intense convection
Friday night into Saturday to our south, and significantly limit
much if any threat of organized strong to severe thunderstorms
for our area Friday or Saturday at this point. A rogue strong
storm or two can`t be ruled out with locally heavier rainfall. The
weaker extension of the larger trough position in the OH valley
will eventually shift southeast through our area late Saturday
into Sunday. Will stick fairly close to suggested blended
guidance, but the trend looks more and more like less impactful
thunderstorms and rainfall, at least this go around of the model
runs. After a cool down into the 70s Friday, temperatures should
warm back into the upper 70s to lower 80s Saturday, and lower to
middle 80s Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 402 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

A system that is expected to bring unsettled weather to close out
this week, by Sunday should be moving eastward over the Mid
Atlantic. Most of the showers activity should be east of the
region in the morning. But heating of residual moisture and
resultant instability could bring isolated to scattered (20-30%)
chance of showers and thunderstorms. This convection should it
occur should remain east of the Interstate 65 corridor, and in the
afternoon. Otherwise despite weak cold air advection, high
temperatures to start the week should warm into the mid 80s.
Shower activity should end Sun evening as high pressure building
in from the west becomes more of an influence on the sensible
weather. Low temperatures should cool into the lower 60s. The
start of the workweek/Monday should feature mostly sunny skies,
with highs rising into the upper 80s. Similar if not a tad warmer
on Tuesday with highs warming to around 90 in few places. Lows
Mon/Tue night should range in the mid/upper 60s.

Surface high pressure should build east of the Tennessee Valley
during Mon/Tue, returning a southerly flow over the area. Another
system forming over the northern Great Plains will head towards
the Great Lakes. A cold front trailing the parent low over
southern Canada will move across the area on Wednesday. Thus have
returned shower and thunderstorm chances to the Valley, beginning
late Tue night and continuing on Wed. With clouds and rain
chances, high temperatures should be in the mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 659 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Convective debris clouds comprised of Cs/As will become bkn-ovc
in coverage at the terminals early in the TAF period, as an MCS
(currently tracking east-southeastward across southeastern
TX/southwestern LA) begins to shift eastward along the central
Gulf Coast. Present indications are that light rain (and perhaps a
couple of embedded TSRA) along the northern periphery of this
system will begin to spread northeastward into northern AL by 8Z,
and we have indicated this by introducing -RA/VCTS at both
airports btwn 9-16Z, but with only minor reductions to vsby and
cigs. In the wake of the initial round of light precipitation
(which should progressively spread northeastward and out of the
region btwn 12-16Z), additional storms may develop along a
trailing outflow boundary extending from northern LA into west
central AL, but with low confidence in impacts as far north as
MSL/HSV, we will not include this scenario in the current TAFs. A
more likely scenario is that widespread low stratus clouds will
develop by late morning and persist for the rest of the period,
with occasional lgt SHRA possible as well. Sfc winds (initially
from the SE at speeds less than 5 kts) will shift to SSE and
strengthen to 5-10 kts prior to sunrise.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...70/DD