717
FXUS63 KICT 071754
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1254 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storm chances today through Saturday night, with potential
  severe weather and heavy rainfall.

- Above average temperatures today-Saturday, with seasonably
  cool to below average temperatures Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

THIS MORNING--AFTERNOON...Increasing deep warm advection may support
a few hit-or-miss showers/thunderstorms from west to east this
morning through the afternoon across central, south-central, and
eastern Kansas. This isolated activity will be rooted around 700mb,
so instability and effective shear will likely be fairly limited,
which should preclude severe weather, although pea-dime size hail
and brief heavy rain may accompany the strongest activity.

THIS EVENING--TONIGHT...A few areas of thunderstorm chances look
possible this evening-tonight. The first area is mainly west of I-
135, as late afternoon western Kansas activity develops in vicinity
of a lee trough within a deeply mixed and hot airmass. Thinking this
activity will tend to struggle with time and eastward extent, given
very warm mid-level temperatures and associated increasing capping
issues. Nevertheless, if storms can survive amidst the warm mid-
level temperatures, moderate to strong instability and stout
effective shear will support supercells capable of large hail and
damaging winds, with the latter being supported by impressive DCAPE
values.

The 2nd area of thunderstorm chances this evening-tonight will be
further northeast over portions of northern, central, and eastern
Kansas. Activity should start out as supercells over Nebraska during
the afternoon-early evening, with activity likely congealing into a
rather large MCS during the evening as it races southeast along the
eastern-northeast fringe of the advancing elevated mixed layer. The
strong combination of buoyancy and effective shear, along with a
strong low-level jet point toward the potential for a few swaths of
intense straight-line damaging winds. The biggest uncertainty at
this point is where this MCS will track. Given the warm mid-level
temperatures, thinking the highest probability is northeast Kansas.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON--EVENING...Friday night`s convection will likely
spread a convectively-reinforced frontal zone south to near the
KS/OK border, but possibly even further south into Oklahoma. Despite
minimal upper forcing, a few thunderstorms are possible in vicinity
of the frontal zone given expected strong heating. If isolated
activity can develop, strong buoyancy and adequate deep layer shear
will support severe storms.

SATURDAY EVENING--NIGHT...As subtle shortwave energy approaches from
the northwest, an uptick in thunderstorm coverage is expected during
the evening Saturday across the region, persisting into the night.
It`s not entirely clear exactly where this activity will be most
widespread. It will all depend on where the tightest 850-700mb
thermal gradient exists, which I`m suspecting will probably reside
somewhere over central to southern Kansas. The instability and
shear combination would favor at least a handful of strong to severe
storms, and the potential for training cells could favor pockets of
very heavy rainfall and localized flooding.

SUNDAY--NEXT WEEK...A post-frontal airmass should support dry and
cooler weather Sunday-Monday, with lower dewpoints as well. Models
diverge for Tuesday, with the GFS remaining dry, and the ECMWF/GEM
returning thunderstorm chances to the region. Only held onto slight
chances PoPs for now until uncertainty lessens. Wednesday-Thursday
looks mostly dry, with the potential for additional thunderstorm
chances arriving by Thursday night--Friday. Temperatures looks to
warm back up by Wednesday and persisting through late week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

VFR conditions are expected at all sites throughout the period.
Showers and storms currently making their way across central Kansas
are anticipated to move out quickly, so the primary aviation impact
today into tonight will be strong southerly winds gusting to near 30
kts at all sites. As the sun sets, these winds will be accompanied
by a strengthening low-level jet that will introduce LLWS at all
sites through later tomorrow morning. Additionally, a storm complex
is expected to move out of Nebraska toward the southeast later
tonight, and confidence is highest that KSLN and KCNU sites will be
affected after 04Z. However, given relative uncertainty regarding
the exact timing and location of these storms, mentions are held to
PROB30 at this time.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...JK/BMB