122
FXUS63 KICT 162249
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
549 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers/storms this afternoon/evening across southeast KS
  No severe weather expected

- Patchy fog possible across much of the area Friday morning

- Severe storm chances return Sunday with additional storm chances
  into next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

As of 3 PM Thursday afternoon, a weak, midlevel trough remains
across the southwest US. Meanwhile, a weak, shortwave trough was
advancing through western WI with a trailing frontal zone along
Interstate 35. Latest satellite and radar trends reveal isolated
showers/storms developing across the Flint Hills. Severe storms are
not expected with ~500 J/kg of MLCAPE and <20 kt of effective shear
present. Brief heavy rain is possible however with PW values up
to 1.3" or roughly the 90th percentile for May 16th standards.

As surface heating decreases this evening, the coverage of
showers/storms should dwindle as well. Clouds will gradually clear,
likely setting the stage for fog formation across much of the area.
Overnight lows will range from the 50s in central KS to near 60
across southeast KS.

As we transition into Friday and the weekend, a northern stream,
midlevel trough will slide across the northern Plains. Limited
moisture should keep things mostly dry Friday and Saturday. A more-
active midlevel pattern will emerge early next week as a
southwestern US trough develops. Deterministic and ensemble guidance
suggest a sharp dryline will emerge over west-central KS Sunday
afternoon with a very unstable environment to the east of the
dryline. Long, veering hodographs would support supercell
structures throughout the afternoon and evening. This event
remains several days away, stay tuned. The active weather
pattern looks to continue into early next week with additional
storm chances.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 549 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Diurnally driven widely scattered showers/isolated storms
across southeast Kansas will dissipate shortly after sunset this
evening. Main concern is fog with IFR/LIFR vsbys toward dawn in
southeast Kansas and parts of south central Kansas where
radiational cooling over the moist ground/near surface airmass
will set up in light wind conditions. Confidence is high enough
to include in the southern Kansas terminals with KCNU the
highest likelihood. Otherwise, lingering low level moisture
along/east of the Kansas turnpike should again promote diurnal
cumulus on Friday afternoon with point forecast soundings
showing shallow instability to promote some vertical diurnal
development and perhaps somewhat more isolated showers again.

KED

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMB
AVIATION...KED