025
FXUS62 KILM 101405
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1005 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move offshore this morning but lingering moisture
and disturbances aloft will keep some rain in the forecast into
Tuesday, especially near the coast. Drier and warmer conditions
are then expected through mid week with even warmer temperatures
and a bit more unsettled weather late in the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
While the main bulk of precip has moved offshore we`re still
expecting periodic showers with some isolated thunder moving in
from the west. Between this precip and clouds, opted to lower
highs for today by a couple degrees, especially through the
middle of our CWA. Otherwise, minor updates made to hourly POPs
through the afternoon as the main axis of precip should shift
to align with the coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A front continues to drop south through SC in an almost west to
east orientation, but then it follows a more northerly
direction up the SC/NC coast where it should linger through
today. Winds are NW behind the boundary, but will back and
become more variable as boundary remains in vicinity of coast.
Plenty of moisture will remain along and south of the front with
pcp water values remaining up to 1.8 inches closer to the coast
through this afternoon.

The mid to upper trough remains very broad across the eastern half
of the CONUS with minor shortwave energy rotating around it. This
will help to produce a few waves of shwrs/tstms along the draped
frontal boundary, with mainly just showers to the north. The
focus of activity should run across eastern SC up along our
local coastal areas, especially along the Grand Strand and
northeast SC coast through this afternoon. By this evening, the
mid to upper trough becomes more amplified digging across the
Southeast and pushing the front farther east out of the area.
Overall, expect unsettled weather today with plenty of clouds
and periods of shwrs/tstms and lingering moisture into tonight
in the way of clouds and possible fog. Drier air will reach into
the northern tier of our forecast area with pcp water values
down to an inch just north and west of area. SPC has outlined a
Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe weather mainly south of
area along the front today. High Temps today will be lower than
yesterday affected by clouds and pcp, with most places in the
low to mid 80s. Overnight lows tonight will be down in the low
to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Highlights:
*No significant weather expected

Confidence:
*Moderate to High

Details: A surface cold front looks to remain south and east of the
area through the period with drier high pressure moving in from the
northwest. We expect minimal rain chances, mostly confined to the
afternoon hours near the coast where the sea breeze will help aid in
increasing moisture convergence. Fortunately no severe or flood risk
however. Temps generally near normal for this time of year with mid
to upper 80s for highs and mid to upper 60s for lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Highlights:
*Very low risk for significant weather

Confidence:
*Moderate

Details: Weak low pressure could develop along the stalled front
offshore late week but should remain far enough away to prevent any
significant impacts. A cold front then looks to approach to start
the weekend. This will lead to hotter and more humid weather through
Saturday with a return to more typical rain chances. There is some
uncertainty later this weekend though depending on the placement
of the front but slightly cooler and drier conditions could
return at least temporarily.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Weather will remain unsettled through today with best chc of
shwrs/tstms across SC terminals, especially FLO to coastal MYR
and CRE terminals into this afternoon. Northwest winds will
become more variable this aftn into this evening as front
remains in the vicinity.

Extended Outlook...VFR through the period though restrictions are
possible in isolated/scattered showers and storms into Tue and
again late in the week.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight... Winds will be NW this morning as front dropped
south and east, but this boundary will remain aligned with the coast
and winds will back and become more variable through today as front
wavers nearby. Expect showers and thunderstorms as a wave of low
pressure rides along the front with greater chc running from SW to
NE from SC coast into the Atlantic. High pressure will build down
over the waters heading into Tues pushing front farther south and
east away from local waters. Seas will remain 2 to 3 ft.

Tuesday through Friday...A cold front should stall southeast of the
area with a weak low pressure or two possibly developing along
it. The lack of significant pressure gradients though should
prevent any strong winds/high seas. Thus, a Small Craft
Advisory is not expected through the period.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...LEW
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...RJB/RGZ