789
FXUS62 KILM 110241
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1041 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier air will work into the area behind a front Tuesday. The midweek
period will be rain-free and increasingly warm. A backdoor cold front
this weekend will not bring appreciable rain chances.

&&

.UPDATE...
A wave of showers, and isolated thunder, is still expected to
move up the coast into overnight hours. Severe potential is over
with the absence of instability. Fog remains likely overnight
across most of northeast SC, and possible for coastal SE NC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A shortwave moving overhead could lead to unsettled weather over NE
SC through this evening. The treat of severe weather has expanded
for this area with the main threat being isolated damaging wind
gusts and perhaps some hail. The question will be how far this
shortwave pushes south, as several CAMs have the activity being
pushed offshore by it and staying to our south. The issue will then
become fog for tonight due to the lingering low level moisture with
less confidence near the coast where there could be more low level
stratus. High pressure looks to get hung up to our west Tuesday with
afternoon showers/storms possible along the sea breeze. Lows in the
low to mid 60s with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Quiet and seasonable weather is expected through the short term. Mid
level flow will be zonal and capped at 15kts. Moisture offshore will
be suppressed well to our south along frontal boundary.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mid level ridge builds Thursday through Sunday. Even so a backdoor
cold front will sag its way either into or through the area over the
weekend. It will be quite deprived of moisture and will thus be hard-
pressed to yield meaningful rain chances. The building heights will
bring a late week warmup to some hot temperatures and heat index
values. The reversal of both temperatures and dewpoints will depend
on whether or not the late week boundary pushes through, which is
not yet certain.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A wave of showers, with isolated thunder, is expected to move up
the coast late this evening into overnight hours, with bulk of
activity remaining offshore though there is a chance for a storm
to impact one of the coastal terminals through 8z or so. Biggest
question through morning is fog potential. Greatest chance for
sub-MVFR visibilities will be at KFLO and surrounding areas,
with TAFs currently carrying 1 1/4 SM between 8z and 13z.
Slightly lower confidence across coastal NE SC, inc. MYR and
CRE, with a few hours of MVFR vsbys currently forecasted. With
less rainfall across SE NC over the last couple days and lower
RH values at the surface, chances of fog are lower for KLBT and
KILM. Could see some ground fog around morning at ILM,
especially if a shower of two impacts the terminal overnight.
Light winds through TAF period, with 5-10 kts SE sea breeze
developing Tuesday afternoon. Isolated sea breeze storms will be
possible Tuesday.

Extended Outlook...Generally VFR each day, with fog possible most
nights through the week.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tuesday...Isolated unsettled weather is possible over the
waters through the period due to passing upper level disturbances.
SW winds tonight will become light and out of the N/NE Tuesday
morning. A sea breeze will have winds turning to out of the SE and
increasing to near 10 kts in the afternoon. Outside of wind waves,
the primary swell appears to be out of the SE at 1-2 ft and 7-9
seconds.

Tuesday night through Saturday... Very light winds will show some
variability but generally tend to favor onshore direction as weak
low along frontal boundary remains well to our south. Later in the
period as speeds remain capped at 10kt while turning to the south
ahead of backdoor cold front. Seas will be comprised of a short
period wind wave and thus remain in the 2-3 ft range.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...VAO
NEAR TERM...LEW
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...MBB/LEW