Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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072 FXUS61 KILN 052348 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 748 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms tonight. High pressure will provide drier weather on Thursday and Friday. The threat for showers and thunderstorms returns during the weekend when a couple of disturbances are forecast to travel across the Ohio Valley. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Showers and thunderstorms have been developing ahead of a cold front situated over Indiana. These lines and cells have less coverage than expected, though coverage should increase as the front reaches the unstable air in place here. With the front moving through this evening, still going with likely to categorical pops. Severe threat appears diminished due to lack of organization into stronger cells and lines of storms. Isolated heavy downpours may be observed from an environment containing 1.6 inches PWAT and favorable warm cloud depth. Drier air working in behind the front should bring an end to precip later tonight. Lows are forecast to range from the low 60s in the west to the upper 60s southeast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Cold front will be east, while high pressure settles to the west. This will leave ILN in a weakly cyclonic flow between the two systems. Due to a general lack of moisture and shallow, weak instability, it appears we will observe dry weather Thursday and Thursday night. Temperatures will be slightly cooler on Thursday with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Additional cold advection and radiational cooling will allow lows in the mid and upper 50s Thursday night. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Upper level disturbances will keep some precipitation chances around at times from Friday through Monday. There is a limited amount of moisture and therefore do not have overly high precipitation chances. Dry conditions are then expected for Tuesday through Wednesday. Breezy conditions will be present for the weekend Friday through Sunday, especially during the daytime hours with wind gusts around 30 to 35 mph at times. There will be plenty of 70s for high temperatures in the extended. with a few 60s will be possible Friday and 80s for Wednesday. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A line of thunderstorms ahead of the cold front passage is moving into west central Ohio right now and will soon be impacting the westernmost TAF sites before working east. For now, just have brief VSBY reductions with these storms. CIGs lower to MVFR for TAF sites in central Ohio during the overnight hours. Overnight winds remain out of the southwest, around 5-10 knots (stronger gusts possible with storms). Storms move out of the area after midnight and the region dries out. Winds shift to out of the west with the cold front passage and the area will improve to VFR conditions. Some hints of patchy fog during early hours on Thursday but, for now, did not include in TAFs given elevated winds and persistent cloud cover. Low clouds scatter out on Thursday, with breezy conditions; winds will be out of the west around 10-15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Winds decrease around sunset Thursday. OUTLOOK...MVFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Saturday night and Sunday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM...Coniglio SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM... AVIATION...CA