Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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523 FXUS61 KILN 072355 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 755 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather will continue tonight as high pressure persists. A disturbance moving from the west will bring a chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm Saturday and Sunday. High pressure and dry air return for Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... High pressure centered to the south will provide dry weather and mainly clear skies tonight. Gusty west winds are expected to diminish to under 6 knots overnight. Below normal lows in the 50s are forecast by 6 am. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A mid-level disturbance and surface low will be tracking across the Central Ohio Valley. The disturbance will be weakening as it encounters dry air and high pressure in place. A few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two may occur out of the modest moisture, convergence and lift that are associated with this system. The shower threat begins mainly in western locations on Saturday, shifting south to the Ohio River Saturday night as the system moves east. Highs are forecast to range from the mid 70s west, up to around 80 east. Insulating cloud cover should allow above normal lows in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Near or just below normal temperatures are expected as we end the weekend and continue into the next work week. This is mainly driven by the synoptic pattern aloft, with troughing present in the jet stream. This trough will amplify as we progress through the day on Sunday as PVA ejects southward from Canada. There will be subtle changes in the overall structure and strength of this troughing feature, but this trough will remain in place as we head into the beginning of the work week. Given the persistent northwesterly flow, drier air will also accompany this feature, leading to dewpoints in the upper 40s to middle 50s across the CWA. This main troughing feature will propagate eastward by late Tuesday into Wednesday. The surface response appears to be slow on Wednesday, but we will begin to see a slight uptick in temperature and dewpoint values. A more notable uptick in heat/humidity values is expected on Thursday as H5 height rises continue. Drier conditions are favored during the majority of the extended forecast period, but a couple of days with a low chance of PoPs remains for portions of our CWA. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions remain in place for the forecast. Scattered diurnally driven cu are dissipating as the sun sets. However, some high cirrus blowoff from a disturbance out to the west is beginning to move into the Tri-State. Winds will decrease overnight hours becoming calm to light and variable. Very dry conditions in place, so not too concerned about fog (although, LUK has a tendency to surprise us). Saturday morning arrives dry, with winds shifting to out of the southwest around 10 knots. High level clouds thicken and lower throughout the day. A weak disturbance passes through the area, losing organization as it progresses into the region. As such, there is low confidence on precipitation from this system. For now, have included a period of VCSH at southernmost TAF sites for a period during the late morning hours, however, isolated showers may linger through the afternoon. Instability is minimal, so while some rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out, not expecting any strong storms. CIGs remain VFR through the end of this TAF period, but expecting some notable lowering as we head into Sunday. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR conditions possible Sunday as showers and storms move through the region. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Coniglio NEAR TERM...Coniglio SHORT TERM...Coniglio LONG TERM...Clark AVIATION...CA