487
FXUS61 KILN 112336
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
736 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warming trend will bring above normal temperatures to the
region for the next week. A system will bring a chance for
thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday with additional
thunderstorm chances early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Cu field over eastern half of CWA will continue to disperse this
evening. A few locations south and then northeast of Wilmington
will see the cu hang around for a few more hours but this will
make little effect on the forecast tonight. High clouds spilling
in from the west/northwest are expected to transit the region
relatively early, with just a few remnants found in northern KY
and eastern CWA towards midnight and a continued rapid clearing
thereafter.

Winds will be light and river valley fog should develop with
dewpoint depressions at KLUK expected to be 1-2 degrees in the
predawn hours. Continued the mention of patchy dense fog in
river valleys and did not make any changes to low temperatures
in the low to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The warming trend will continue on Wednesday with above normal
temperatures in the low to middle 80s. Lows Wednesday night
will drop down into the middle 50s to lower 60s. A weak system
will bring the potential for a few sprinkles near and north of
Interstate 70 Wednesday night. Moisture is limited with this
system and therefore limited any precipitation mention to
sprinkles.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Some mid level troughing will develop across the Great Lakes,
southeast Canada, and New England during the Thursday into Friday
timeframe. This will push a weak cold front southeast through our
region. Thursday should remain dry as the cold front will not make
in roads until Thursday night. Thus, it will be warmer and a little
more humid than Wednesday. Highs will range from the mid to upper
80s. For Thursday night into Friday, as the cold front pushes
through, there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Best
chance will be across our northwest Thursday night. There could be a
strong storm or two early on before instability wanes overnight in
this location. Pcpn threat will end by Friday evening everywhere,
allowing drier and a little cooler air to move back into our region.
After lows in the 60s, highs on Friday will be in the mid 80s. Lows
Friday night will drop into the mid 50s to the lower 60s.

Surface high pressure will dominate the weather pattern on Saturday.
Under mostly sunny skies, highs will range from the lower to mid 80s.
Mostly clear skies Saturday night will allow temperatures to drop
into the upper 50s to the lower 60s.

The surface high will have moved east by Sunday. As has been
advertised, an upper level ridge is forecast to build northward into
the Ohio Valley. There will be an increase in humidity with
developing low level southerly flow. And with rising mid level
heights and rising low level temperatures, it will become hot. Highs
will warm into the upper 80s to the lower 90s with heat indices
peaking into the mid 90s along and south of the Ohio River.

Monday is looking like the hottest day as the upper level high
remains in place. After lows in the lower 70s, highs will warm into
the mid 90s. These temperatures, combined with humidity, will push
heat indices into the 100 to 105 degree range. Also, can not rule
out a pop up shower/storm in the afternoon/evening due to diurnal
instability.

Uncertainty begins to creep into the extended as we head into mid
week next week as models differ as to whether the upper level high
will hold sway or will it break down some, allowing weak
disturbances to rotate around its periphery through the Ohio Valley.
As such, have temperatures a little lower by Tuesday, but it will
still be hot and humid along with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
What few higher based cu at KILN and KCMH/KLCK are noted will
soon die out. Thin cirrus entering from the west/northwest
should transit the CWA this evening and be east of CMH and south
of CVG by or shortly after midnight, leading to generally clear
sky cover.

Dewpoint depressions at KLUK are noted to be 1-2 degrees. With
the light winds and clear skies, radiational cooling should
result in some valley fog that will be locally dense of 1/4sm
and cigs aoa 200`. Temperatures will rise quickly and this fog
should erode in short order with the coming of daylight. More
cirrus will be noted over the CWA on Wednesday, along with some
patches of higher 9-10kft AC/AS clouds before noon.

Winds through the period will be light and less than 10 knots.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible on Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...Franks