Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
963 FXUS61 KILN 311737 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 137 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure of Canadian origin will bring dry and cool conditions through this evening. An unsettled pattern is expected from late Saturday through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Surface high pressure slowly shifts off the east this evening into tonight. As this occurs, and upper level vorticity max will approach from the west thereby increasing southerly flow over the Ohio Valley. Upper level clouds and moisture increase through the night on the southerly flow. Forecast lows are in the middle 50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Dry conditions are still expected to stick around Saturday morning ahead of an approaching upper level vorticity max and weak surface disturbance. Mostly dry conditions may actually end up persisting across the area until afternoon when rain finally starts to move in from the west associated with the aforementioned system. A severe threat is not at all expected since instability is minimal and shear is well below severe thresholds. Dew points and cloud cover increase through the day on weak southerly flow. Forecast highs are near 80. The chance for rain persists Saturday night with the upper level trough axis pivoting through. Forecast QPF is less than and inch with means there is little flood concern. Forecast lows drop into the middle to lower 60s. Surface flow will be southerly to start the night before shifting to the west later on the western side of the trough axis. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Rainfall spreading into the CWA from the west ahead of an upper s/w Saturday night will end from nw-se on Sunday. Dry weather under weak ridging behind the s/w will occur through Monday, possibly overnight. While deterministic models show little odds of rain overnight Monday due to an upper ridge still in place, NBM is pushing rain chances during this time, increasing it through Tuesday and lingering the chances through Thursday. Significant timing differences in mass fields of GFS and Euro continue for the remainder of the forecast even though the pattern for both is fairly similar. Other models and apparently the ensembles throw more than timing/placement into the mix with large scale pattern differences coming into play. This ends up keeping at least low chances of precip in the forecast through Thursday evening. It is more than likely that some dry periods will occur between systems but uncertainty noted above does not give a large enough indication to put a lack of pops in any period with confidence. Sunday`s highs will reach the mid to upper 70s, generally a little cooler than Saturday due to the expected rainfall. Monday through Wednesday will have highs in the low-mid 80s, with Thursday being a bit cooler within a few degrees on either side of 80. Uniform lows Sat night near 61-62 in a moisture-laden atmosphere will drop slightly lower Sun night on either side of 60 with drier air. Mon night-Wed night lows in the mid to upper 60s should drop to the lower 60s for Thursday night. Temperatures in the forecast beyond the first few periods are also dependent on what systems move through and when they do. Attm, warmer forecast is the more likely scenario until a frontal passage Wed night or Thursday knocks readings down at the end of the forecast. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions persist through at least 1800z Saturday despite increasing upper and mid level clouds. MVFR or lower conditions and showers are eventually expected to develop after 1800z Saturday. Southeasterly winds from 5-10 knots shifts to the south after 1200z Saturday. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible late Saturday through Tuesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Campbell NEAR TERM...Campbell SHORT TERM...Campbell LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...Campbell