742
FXUS61 KILN 111853
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
253 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the central Great Lakes and
middle Ohio Valley tonight. The high will then push east across
the region Sunday into Sunday night. Clouds will increase on
Monday. Showers and thunderstorm chances will increase Monday
night into Tuesday ahead of the next low pressure system.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A weak cold front/surface trof has pushed east of the forecast
area this afternoon, taking pcpn chances with it. It will remain
breezy to locally windy into this evening until diurnal cooling
and a relaxing pressure gradient allow gusts to subside after 8
pm.

For tonight, skies are forecast to become mostly clear as
surface high pressure builds east into the central Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley. The winds will continue to lighten up
overnight. It will be cool with lows ranging from the lower to
upper 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The surface ridge will move east across the region on Sunday.
Mostly sunny skies are expected. A modifying and warming airmass
will move in from the west during the day. This will allow
temperatures to rise into the 70s for highs.

For Sunday night, as the surface ridge moves east, a mid level
ridge axis will move east into the middle Ohio Valley. Clouds
will increase from the west overnight. Lows will be warmer,
mainly in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
On Monday morning, ridging over the southeastern CONUS will be
sliding off to the east, as an upstream trough (possibly with a
closed low) moves into the middle Mississippi Valley by Tuesday
morning. Deep-layer southerly flow ahead of this system will
bring an increase in moisture, with showers beginning to move
into the area by Monday afternoon, and a greater chance of
widespread precipitation by Monday evening. As the upper trough
slowly moves eastward across the Ohio Valley, there will be
occasional chances for showers and storms through Wednesday,
though both the upper low (and eventually open wave) and surface
low will be weakening with time. A southward-moving cold front
will follow into the region behind the surface low on Wednesday,
providing drier and cooler air and ending the chances for
precipitation by Wednesday night. Confidence in this part of the
forecast is medium, with good confidence in the overall
pattern, but still details to work out, particularly in timing
the individual waves of forcing rotating around the trough. Some
of the mesoscale details will help determine if there will be
any severe or flood threats with this system, but there are no
obvious signs of any major issues at this point. Some lower-end
flood risk could develop whenever forcing and moisture transport
maximize, perhaps on Tuesday.

Ridging and surface high pressure will bring drier conditions
on Thursday. Confidence is low in the pattern for Friday and
Saturday, as there remains model disagreement in how quickly
southerly flow and upstream troughing will return to the area.
For now, will keep low chances for precipitation in on both
days.

Temperatures on Monday, ahead of the incoming system, will
reach the mid 70s to around 80. Somewhat cooler conditions are
expected for the next few days, before a warming trend begins
again by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00Z Sunday, west to northwest winds 15 to 20 knots with
gusts between 25 and 30 knots can be expected. In the wake of a
surface trof, weak CAA will result in FEW-SCT cumulus clouds.

For tonight, surface high pressure will build east into the
central Great Lakes and middle Ohio Valley. Gusts will subside
after 00Z and sustained west to northwest winds will lower (5
knots or less overnight). Skies will be mostly clear.

On Sunday, as the surface ridge moves east, a mid level ridge
axis will slide into the middle Ohio Valley. Due to the surface
ridge axis, surface winds will vary from west/northeast over the
east half to southwest to west over the west half. Sustained
speeds will be 5 to 10 knots. Skies will be mostly clear (FEW
cirrus).

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR conditions along with thunderstorms possible
Monday night through Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...Hatzos
AVIATION...Hickman