Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 161055
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
655 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy to windy conditions are expected for today as high
pressure moves off to the southeast while a cold front
approaches from the northwest. The cold front will move
southeast through the region tonight, bringing a chance of
showers. Cooler conditions are expected in the wake of the front
on Sunday. Colder temperatures and a chance for snow showers
will then occur on Monday as a large scale mid level trough digs
into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Through sunrise, skies will be mainly clear as a ridge axis
settles across the Ohio River Valley. Light to calm winds, clear
skies, and shallow moisture have resulted in mainly
river/stream valley fog, mainly along and south of the Ohio
River. Will continue to monitor to see if the fog should start
occurring outside of these valleys and will adjust the forecast
accordingly.

Otherwise, fog will lift between 8 AM and 10 AM. Mostly sunny
skies are expected for a good part of the day with some increase
in clouds from the west/northwest expected during the afternoon
as a cold front approaches from the northwest. An increasing
surface pressure gradient and diurnal mixing of stronger winds
aloft will make for a breezy to windy afternoon. Highest wind
gusts are expected across our northwest where winds may gust up
to 40 mph by mid to late afternoon and into the early evening
hours. It will warm up nicely with highs expected to range from
the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A mid level trough will dig east across the central and eastern
Great Lakes tonight into Sunday. This will push a cold front
southeast across our area tonight. Moisture is limited. However,
best low level convergence is expected across our northern and
northeast areas where some light shower activity will occur.
Elsewhere, a spotty light shower or sprinkle will be possible.
Winds will stay locally gusty ahead and behind frontal passage.
Lows will range from the lower 30s northwest to the lower 40s
southeast.

On Sunday, mid level flow will become west/southwest ahead of
the next digging mid level trough for the beginning of the week.
Thus, we will be between systems. Under partly cloudy skies, it
will be cooler with highs ranging from the lower 40s northwest
to the lower 50s southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Northwesterly mid-level flow will characterize the pattern to
start the extended period Sunday night, with a well-defined
trough to swing into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Monday.
Despite marginal surface air temperatures and a relatively warm
ground, very cold air aloft will cause snow showers to develop
during the day. These scattered showers could leave a few tenths
of short-lived accumulation on grassy surfaces by Monday
afternoon.

The trough axis begins to shift off to the east Monday night,
followed by a weaker disturbance in the northwesterly flow late
Tuesday. Have kept the forecast dry at this time, though suppose
there could be a light passing shower across central Ohio.

Surface high pressure will build into the Ohio Valley starting
Wednesday and continuing into Thursday. Heights will also begin
to increase during this time, so temperatures will increase back
to near seasonal normals. Southerly return flow to close the
week may bring above normal temperatures and a chance of rain
showers as the next low pressure system organizes over the lower
to middle Mississippi Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
For today, river fog will lift between 12Z and 14Z. The surface
ridge axis will then quickly depart to our southeast.
Meanwhile, a mid level trough will dig southeast into the
western and central Great Lakes. A cold front associated with
this mid level feature will approach our northwest forecast area
by 00Z Sunday. The surface pressure gradient will tighten as
the front approaches, and with diurnal mixing, gusty southwest
winds will develop. Sustained winds will range from around 10
knots along and south of the Ohio River to 15 to 20 knots across
west central Ohio. Wind gusts will range from around 20 knots
along and south of the Ohio River with gusts to around 35 knots
across west central Ohio. Mainly mid and and high level clouds
will increase in coverage later in the day.

For tonight, as the mid level trough continues to dig east into
the eastern Great Lakes, the cold front will push southeast
across our region. Best low level moisture and convergence are
expected across central Ohio where a brief period of light
showers may occur. Elsewhere, there will be a chance for a
spotty light shower. Conditions should remain mainly VFR.
Sustained winds 10 to 15 knots will veer to the northwest behind
the front. Gusts will range between 15 and 25 knots.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible on Monday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Hickman


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