520
FXUS61 KILN 290029
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
829 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level disturbances will allow for off and on rainfall
chances through Wednesday. Dry conditions will then arrive with
high pressure Thursday through the start of Saturday before a
more unsettled weather pattern develops for the remainder of the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Some subtle changes were made to timing of the ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA
moving into the ILN FA this evening. Expect that this disorganized
activity will overspread the local area from W to E through the
heart of the mid/late evening hours, eventually waning toward/beyond
midnight as it approaches central OH.

The main item of interest for the mid/late evening will be the
small hail and brief gusty winds possible in the strongest
cores. Given the cool air aloft and steep LL lapse rates through
mid evening, would expect that there could be some pea-sized
hail and gusts to 35-40 MPH at times in the more well-developed
cores. But such occurrences should remain very isolated in
nature. This potential for small hail and gusty winds should
wane with eastward extent very late into the evening.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A couple of disturbances will affect the area tonight. The first
disturbance causing scattered showers across northern counties
will move east this evening, and coupled with loss of daytime
heating, showers will diminish for a time. The next short wave
arriving later tonight from the northwest is expected to
trigger additional showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two.
While still affecting mainly northern locations, the showers may
also reach farther south to the Ohio River given the stronger
and larger nature of the second disturbance. Winds gusting over
20 mph early are forecast to subside overnight. However, HRRR
shows stronger gusts occurring briefly with the second batch of
showers. By 6 am, cool lows in the low to mid 50s will be
observed.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Short wave energy and a surface trough will combine with a
moderate amount of moisture to produce showers and thunderstorms
on Wednesday. Area most affected will be Central Ohio where we
have categorical pops until mid afternoon. Remainder of the area
will see lower but nonzero chances for showers and a few
thunderstorms.

For Wednesday night, showers should diminish rapidly as the
disturbance weakens and moves east, coinciding with diurnal
reduction of instability.

Below normal highs in the upper 60s to low 70s are indicated,
followed by cool lows in the mid 40s to low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Surface high pressure will remain over the region Thursday through
Friday night. Below average temperatures and dry conditions persist
on northerly, then easterly, flow.

The surface high begins to shift further to the east on Saturday
into Saturday night which will allow for the development of
southerly flow. Temperatures and moisture start to increase on the
southerly winds. Rain chances also increase on Saturday into
Saturday night as an upper level shortwave may progress through the
Ohio Valley.

Slightly above average temperatures are forecast for the start of
next week as the Ohio Valley will likely be in quasi-zonal upper
level flow. Periods of showers and storms are likely, although not
yet rendered, since the synoptic setup favors shortwaves moving
through the upper level flow.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCT to BKN VFR Cu will persist through the TAF period, with
several rounds of ISO/SCT SHRA (and perhaps ISO TS, too)
expected through the period. The first round of disorganized
SHRA will pivot through the local area between about 02z-07z,
likely impacting each site for about an hour or so each. Could
see some brief reductions in VSBYs and perhaps some gustiness
(~30kts or so) as well, but did not yet have confidence to add
in the potential to the TEMPO groups at this juncture. This
activity should push off to the E by 07z, leaving mainly dry
conditions through mid morning.

VFR CIGs will transition to MVFR by/after sunrise, persisting
through the morning hours before lifting back to VFR for the
afternoon. Additional ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA is expected by/after
16z, with the greatest coverage focused near KILN/KCMH/KLCK
during the heart of the afternoon hours. This activity should
wane toward/after 00z Thursday, but may persist for several
hours after sunset.

WNW winds around 5kts will persist through the morning hours
before going more out of the NNW and increasing to around
10-12kts, with gusts 15-20kts, for the afternoon.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...KC/Coniglio
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...KC