Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
370 FXUS61 KILN 081008 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 608 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS... While slightly less humid conditions are expected on Tuesday, some heat and humidity will remain in place through the week, with occasional chances for storms. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A broad cold front will stall over the area this morning and remain parked through the daytime. Some visibility reduction prior to sunrise are possible due to low level saturation and calm winds. The most likely area for fog develop is along and northwest of I-71. For today, drier air will be in place compared to yesterday and there is a lack of forcing. Thus, only a slight chance for showers/storms exists this afternoon. While a stray cell cannot be ruled out at any location, the best chance for rain is south of I-71 closer to the front. Forecast highs are in the middle to upper 80s along with light winds. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... Rain chances remain low tonight in the absence of any appreciable forcing. With the approach of a low pressure northwest of the area, southerly flow does start increasing late. Forecast lows are near 70. On Wednesday, shower and storm chances develop into the later afternoon and evening hours. The rain coverage is expected to increase due to an high PWATs being drawn in from the southwest overlapping forcing ahead of an approaching front. Forecast highs are in the lower to middle 80s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Weak westerly flow will bring minor disturbance across the area during the latter part of the week. A weak area of low pressure passing across northern Ohio will drag a boundary into the area on Thursday. There will be the potential for some showers and storms out ahead of that. The boundary will wash out by Friday but there will be some diurnal convection. Over the weekend, a short wave will lift out of the central Plains into the Great Lakes ahead of a stronger trough moving across the northern tier into the western Great Lakes. This latter feature has increasing spread in timing but overall solutions have trended toward lifting the primary energy into Ontario with broad troughing across the Great Lakes. The timing of the mid level system affects the timing of a trailing surface front that will move into the area over the weekend. A majority of the ensemble clusters (around 60 percent) favor a slower progression of the boundary which would lead to higher chances of precipitation on Sunday compared to Saturday, but the broad brush NBM PoPs show little difference between the two days reflecting the uncertainty. The Great Lakes trough will be lifting out allowing heights to build into the Ohio Valley on Monday. This could lead to a fairly dry day but at this point cannot rule out some activity. High temperatures will be trending warmer each day until the weekend boundary moves into the area, but even after that readings will still be a bit above normal. Lows will remain persistently above normal (about 2 to 5 degrees) through the period. && .AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Scattered MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities will quickly dissipate after 1200z when diurnal mixing starts. VFR conditions are expected to persist for most sites for the TAF period. There is the slim chance for brief passing shower today, but probability of occurrence is too low for inclusion in the TAFs. After 0600z Wednesday, some minor visibility reductions are possible. Light westerly winds develop this morning. Wind relax to light and variable tonight. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible each day from Thursday through Saturday, mainly in the afternoon and evening. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Campbell NEAR TERM...Campbell SHORT TERM...Campbell LONG TERM... AVIATION...Campbell