Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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798 FXUS64 KJAN 050553 AAC AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 1253 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 ...New AVIATION... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 931 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 The severe weather threat and flash flood threat has ended for the night. Local radars still showed a few storms along the Mississippi/Alabama border that will shift east into Alabama before midnight. Regional satellite imagery and radar showed some vigorous convection over Oklahoma and southeast Kansas that will continue to approach our CWA from the northwest. Model consensus is that this activity may congeal into another mcs but not affect our CWA until after sunrise Wednesday so pops have been largely removed the remainder of the night. Temperatures have been rain cooled across our south and east. Morning lows have been lowered allowing only a slight recovery before sunrise. /22/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 318 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Rest of this afternoon through Wednesday... Cold pool has drifted far across the area, with majority of the focus of moist southerly flow & destabilization along & ahead of the boundary for southwestern areas. There has been a uptick in convective organization as the storms move in across the MS River corridor & should continue to mature as they propagate eastward. There is a core of storms moving across south-central LA that have a deep cold pool & should tap into the stout environment mainly south of the I-20 corridor. With 340-350K 925-850mb Theta E reservoir over the Gulf Coast region & nosing into the Hwy 84 corridor, this environment should be able to support more maturing of this convective complex. There is some expectation of an eventual more north-south orientation of a line progged to swing eastward along the Hwy 84 corridor. As mentioned before, steep mid- level lapse rates of 6-8 deg C, 30-35kts mean bulk shear & ongoing 2-4k J/kg ML/MUCAPE south & south of the I-20 corridor should focus the potential for severe storms. Adjusted the severe graphic to focus mainly south of I-20 with the "Slight" risk area. Main threats remains to be damaging winds of 60-70mph & some hail. With recent rains & expected potential for an additional 2-3 inches, with locally higher amounts possible, some localized flash flooding potential remain possible, but especially across the southern half of the "Limited" zone along & south of I-20 & west of I-55. Lastly, there has been some potential for a somewhat weak but earlier evident wake low in the back sharp edge of this precip. Expect these storms to move out of the region into the early evening hours, possibly as early as 8-10PM but left the going end timing as is for now. Strong deep layer flow is progged to swing over the top of the southwestern ridge tonight & into Wednesday, leading to a frontal zone & southern shortwave ascent again Wednesday morning through the aftn hours. Mesoscale details will be key, convective allowing models indicate another MCS diving down out of the Ozarks, moving into the northwest ArkLaMiss Delta around daybreak & potentially reinvigorating after daybreak into the aftn hours on Wednesday. With mid-level lapse rates around 7-8 deg C, 29-31C vertical totals & 25-35kts mean bulk shear in the 0-3km/0-6km layers, isolated severe storms are possible, especially where the highest Theta E reservoir resides across the southwestern areas along & south of I-20 & into the Hwy 84 corridor. Lows will be seasonably warm in the low-mid 70s, while near to slightly seasonably warm southeast of the Natchez Trace in the low 90s while near seasonable values in the mid-upper 80s to the northwest. /DC/ Wednesday through Tuesday: Continuing into Wednesday another round of potentially severe storms will be possible across much of the southwestern portions of the CWA at least, and the main threat will be damaging wind gusts. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible for the rest of the area. Weak high pressure expanding into the southern plains and high pressure over the southeastern US will leave our area sandwiched between the two leading to moisture steadily feeding into the area. We can expect PWs to near the 2 inch range with northwesterly winds aloft in the 25-35kt range will lead to the probable lines of convection moving into the area by daybreak Wednesday. Expect this activity to be mainly confined to before daybreak and again going into the afternoon as daytime heating may lead to redevelopment some of which may be strong to severe. Otherwise the long term period will be dominated by continuous chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms almost everyday of the period with possible low end chances for marginally severe storms. This activity will be mainly in the southwest where the most favorable storm environment will be but we will continue to keep messaging day to day. By Friday going into Saturday a cold front will push southeast into our area limiting storm coverage and intensity in the area as drier air filters into the area. Sunday rain chances will continue into Monday with a weak shortwave primed to drop into the area by mid afternoon bring a return to rain and storm chances. Tuesday, troughing across the rockies will begin to shift eastward continuing rain chances into midweek./KP/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1253 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Patchy IFR/LIFR stratus have developed across the area and are expected to increase through the early morning hours with patchy fog also possible. Low clouds and fog should mix out through mid to late morning, but another round of SHRA and TS are possible during the daytime, with the potential for localized gusts of 50 kt and brief categorical reductions. Outside of this activity, VFR conditions are expected through the day into the early evening before another round of low stratus and patchy fog late tonight into early Thursday morning. /DL/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 88 71 89 70 / 60 50 30 0 Meridian 90 70 90 69 / 50 60 40 0 Vicksburg 87 71 90 70 / 60 40 20 0 Hattiesburg 92 73 91 72 / 40 40 50 0 Natchez 88 70 89 70 / 50 40 30 0 Greenville 84 71 91 70 / 60 30 10 10 Greenwood 84 70 90 68 / 70 40 10 10 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ /