Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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388 FXUS64 KJAN 051137 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 637 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 344 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Through tonight: We`re rolling into yet another day of the same weather pattern with a forecast heavily contingent on the evolution of mesoscale features. For now, all is quiet in the wake of yesterday afternoon and early evening`s MCS, with very patchy transient low clouds early this morning. The next feature of interest is an MCS pushing through the ArkLaTex. Convection along the leading edge of this feature has become less vigorous over the past couple of hours, but for the time being it is still sustaining a push of quite strong wind with radar velocity sampling 50-65 kt. Contrary to previous MCSs, this one has a much greater southward component, likely riding along a corridor of greater instability that extends from east TX into southwest LA. As northern portions of this MCS cross over into a more stable environment and given the lack of deeper convection to maintain the cold pool, current thinking is these storms will weaken significantly as they approach our area later this morning, with healthier convection surviving a more southward path toward the Gulf. However, remnant outflows and perhaps an MCV from this system will likely drift eastward into our area later today and with daytime heating and airmass recovery, may serve as forcing for new development of convection through the afternoon into the early evening. Today`s lower probability but higher ceiling scenario is the cold pool from this morning`s MCS is stronger than anticipated and either maintains its current strength or weakens some then reorganizes later today (similar to yesterday`s system) and moves into parts of northeast LA and west/south MS. Again, similar to recent days, damaging wind gusts would be the main concern. A marginal severe risk is being highlighted in the areas that could be impacted by this conditional threat. /DL/ Thursday through mid next week... Storm chances will likely continue into Thursday as a cold front pushes south. Storms will continue to be possible along and south of the front where moisture remains abundant, but generally weaker flow than previous systems will limit organization and thus limit magnitude of severity. Can`t rule out isolated storms across southwestern areas Friday as the aforementioned cold front stalls out in the vicinity of the HWY 84 corridor. Opted to add low end PoPs in this area to account for this. Lack of airmass change to the south will keep storm chances in the forecast. Surface high pressure settles in for much of the area Saturday and drier air will shift focus further south and west, thus limiting the chance for storms. As this high pressure shifts east Sunday, moisture recovers. A shortwave pushes across the midsouth, increasing rain and storm chances. Increased flow could aid in organization, but confidence on overall evolution is low as mesoscale features could play a role. Early to mid next week a seasonally anomalous trough digs south across the eastern CONUS. A stalled boundary could shift while several waves push across the area. Areas to the south of this boundary, mainly south of I-20, will keep rain and storm chances at any given time, so activity should continue into next week. That said, organization appears less likely than seen previously and should keep severe chances isolated. /SAS/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 635 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 A patchy MVFR/IFR stratus deck exists across the area this morning. Through the day, scattered to numerous SHRA and TS are expected to increase, with the greatest coverage along and south of I-20. Brief categorical reductions are possible in storms, and wind gusts to 50 kt cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, the stratus deck is expected to diminish by mid to late morning, with VFR conditions prevailing outside of the storms. Redevelopment of patchy low clouds is anticipated late tonight through Thursday morning. /DL/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 88 70 88 69 / 60 60 20 0 Meridian 90 69 90 68 / 60 70 40 0 Vicksburg 87 70 90 70 / 60 40 10 0 Hattiesburg 92 73 90 71 / 60 50 60 0 Natchez 88 70 89 69 / 60 50 20 0 Greenville 84 71 91 70 / 60 20 0 0 Greenwood 84 70 90 68 / 60 40 10 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ DL/SAS