522
FXUS62 KJAX 111813
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
213 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...BENEFICIAL RAINFALL FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 213 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

The frontal boundary will remain stalled over the forecast area
today with drier more stable air behind the front over southeast
Georgia and a more humid southwesterly to westerly flow ahead of
the boundary over northeast and north central Florida. Showers and
storms will develop initially over north central Florida today,
moving in a southwest to northeast pattern, with convection
expected to develop further northward into northeast Florida as
the afternoon progresses with stronger developments remaining
primarily to the south of the I-10 corridor with developments also
possible in conjunction with the diurnal sea breeze near the
coast. Convection is expected to become dispersed overnight and
into early Wednesday morning. High temperatures today will rise
into the lower to mid 90s for inland areas and into the lower 90s
for areas along the shoreline. Overnight low temperatures will
drop down into the lower 70s over inland areas and into the mid to
upper 70s for coastal areas and along the St Johns River.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 213 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

An area of low pressure develops into a closed low as it moves
northeastward along the stalled boundary draped across NE FL and
exits into the coastal Atlantic waters by Wednesday night. Model
differences continue with the ECMWF as the faster solution with a
closed low emerging into the Atlantic Wednesday morning and then
weakening as it shifts further into the Atlantic. The GFS lags
behind the other models but further strengthens the low on
Thursday as it meanders along the boundary into the Atlantic. At
this time, the environment remains unfavorable for tropical
development and so NHC has highlighted only a low chance for
development. Showers and thunderstorms develop mainly across NE FL
on Wednesday as the low pressure spreads tropical moisture (PWATs
2+ in) across NE FL. Flow becomes northeasterly with the low in
the western Atlantic and filters in some drier air into SE GA for
Thursday. Rain chances will be slightly lower for Thursday. Deep
tropical moisture remains over north-central FL where 1-3 in. of
rainfall will be possible Wednesday into Thursday. Rain and cloud
cover will keep the heat at bay with highs in the upper 80s to low
90s and overnight lows in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 213 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

The subtropical jet aloft and surface boundary will remain positioned
just to the south of our region through Friday, which should keep
the majority of the higher mean layer moisture to our south and
therefore lower chances for convection. By the weekend, surface
high pressure over the northeastern US shifts offshore and induce
a more easterly onshore flow over the region. Although this will
increase available moisture in the lower levels, high pressure
also looks to build in/strengthen aloft which will result in some
increase in subsidence in the upper levels. Given the time of
year, will likely still be chances for showers and t`storms
diurnally daily for the weekend and into Monday, though chances
look lower than average as of now. Guidance has been suggesting an
elongated trough like feature from the Caribbean into the western
Gulf around the start of next week, though higher pressure
overhead should help to keep the feature suppressed well to the
west of the area.

Regarding temperatures: Temps will be slightly above average for
Friday and into Saturday, though tending closer to normal by
Sunday and into the start of next week with the increasing onshore
flow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 141 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Showers and storms initially building across north central Florida
will develop over northeast Florida as the afternoon progresses,
with heaviest developments occurring south of the I-10 corridor.
Vicinity showers and storms are likely for most sites with GNV and
potentially SGJ experiencing more abundant thunderstorm activity
by around 21-22z. Developments near the coast are possible in
association with the diurnal sea breeze. Convection will dissipate
overnight with low level cloud decks building in more densely
over GNV and VQQ by around 06-08z on Wednesday with convection
beginning to redevelop by the end of the forecasted period for
areas west of the I-95 corridor, with winds building in from out
of the west.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 213 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

The frontal boundary will remain stalled across our local waters
today, with showers and thunderstorms initially over central
Florida gradually spreading northward towards our area this
afternoon. Weak low pressure will then develop along this stalled
boundary tonight over the northeast Florida waters, with this
feature moving slowly northeastward through Friday. Prevailing
onshore winds are expected late this week as this weak low
pressure center moves further away from our local waters. Periods
of showers and thunderstorms will remain possible across through
the upcoming weekend as the frontal boundary remains stalled. A
stronger high pressure center will build southeastward from the
eastern Great Lakes region this weekend, with a surge of onshore
winds possible by Sunday and Monday as this feature wedges down
the southeastern seaboard.

Rip Currents: Developing onshore winds this afternoon will combine
with a south-southeasterly ocean swell to create a low-end
moderate rip current risk at area beaches. This lower end moderate
risk will likely continue during the next few days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  92  70  92 /  20  10  10  20
SSI  79  87  76  87 /  20  20  10  30
JAX  73  90  72  90 /  30  40  10  40
SGJ  77  89  75  88 /  40  50  30  60
GNV  73  91  71  91 /  40  80  30  50
OCF  73  90  72  90 /  40  80  60  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$