829
FXUS62 KJAX 021119
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
719 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 326 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

High pressure will be off the coast of the Carolinas, shifting
towards Bermuda. This will lead to southeasterly steering flow
today, allowing for the Atlantic sea breeze to move well inland.
Moisture moving in from the west will bring PWAT values to sit
above 1.5 inches across the area. Showers and storms are likely to
begin along the I-75 corridor as the Gulf breeze and Atlantic sea
breeze meet. With the increase in moisture to the area, combined
with diurnal instability, the development of isolated to widely
scattered showers and storms across the area can be expected from
the afternoon to early evening. Daytime temperatures will
primarily be in the upper 80s, with warmer temperatures expected
along the north central FL counties. Overnight, temperature lows
will dip to the upper 60s for inland areas with coastal locations
dipping to the lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 326 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Light, stagnant flow pattern will establish itself across the
local area early this week as broad low level ridging builds
across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico Monday and then shifts over
Florida Tuesday. Moisture seeping back into the area will
recharge diurnal instability and aid in scattered showers and
isolated storms along the sea breezes. T`storms development will
be more likely during the late afternoon and early evening hours
as sea breezes converge generally west of I-95. Primary concerns
will be locally heavy downpours, occasional lightning and possibly
localized gusty outflows but severe t`storms are unlikely.

Temperatures will build through the week with highs trending into
the low 90s inland by Tuesday and upper 80s to near 90 at the coast.
Overnight temperatures will still be fairly comfortable,
especially inland with readings in the upper 60s. Warming coastal
waters will keep coastal zones a few degrees warmer in the low to
mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 326 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Deepening moisture will continue through the end of the week with
more than half of the buffet of ensemble members signaling PWATs
surging above the 75th percentile (~1.7"). This deeper moisture
will arrive Thursday and occur as the steering flow shifts
southwesterly and strengthens ahead of an approaching frontal
feature. This moisture and realignment in the steering will
bolster instability through the end of the week and into the
weekend and ultimately enhance diurnal t`storm chances across the
region. Given the transition period, guidance is still struggling
with the progressiveness of the aforementioned front. Run-to-run
inconsistency has limited confidence in whether a frontal passage
will occur. If the front stalls to the north, the hot and unstable
airmass will stay in place, keeping storm chances through the
weekend.

In addition to the increasing t`storm potential, temperatures and
heat risk will build through the week as ambient highs push well
above normal with peak heat index values possibly in the 100-105
range.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 710 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

A BKN080-120 mid-deck is moving over the forecast area with some
light rain/sprinkles over the southeast GA area. No significant
aviation impacts expected for KSSI. With a breezy SE to ESE flow
coming in off the ocean could see a light shower at the coastal
fields and KCRG but showers will be very brief. Will cover this
possibility with VCSH. The Gulf Sea breeze will converge with the
Atlantic southeasterly flow and sea breeze over interior Fl near
I-75. Thus have VCTS for KGNV with a tempo for showers between
0219/0223. Again anything there will be very brief.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 326 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

High pressure will shift eastward towards Bermuda into next week
as southeasterly flow continues. Isolated storm chances will
return over the local waters this afternoon and early evening
hours. Winds will become more southerly by midweek and then
southwesterly ahead of an approaching cold front by the end of the
week.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents continues through
Monday for all area beaches.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 326 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

The stagnant flow pattern associated with a ridge of high
pressure will allow winds to be dictated entirely by the sea and
gulf breeze through Wednesday. Moisture and afternoon humidities
will trend higher through the week. The uptick in moisture and
instability will increase thunderstorm coverage, particularly
Thursday and Friday. Lacking transport flow will limit dispersion
through the first half of the week before winds increase from the
southwest on Thursday and Friday. By next weekend, a cool front may
attempt to push into the region.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 326 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Water levels are steadily receding along lower portions of the
Santa Fe River near the gauge at Three Rivers Estates, but minor
flooding will continue through most of the upcoming week due to
backwater flooding effects from action level water levels along
lower portions of the Suwannee River.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  87  68  90  69 /  40  20  40  10
SSI  85  73  86  74 /  20  20  30  10
JAX  87  69  90  69 /  20  20  30  10
SGJ  87  71  87  71 /  20  20  30  10
GNV  89  67  91  67 /  30  20  40  10
OCF  90  68  92  68 /  30  20  40  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$