014
FXUS63 KLBF 052323
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
623 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions will persist through Thursday.

- Precipitation chances will increase beginning Thursday night and
continue through the weekend. The threat for severe storms appears
highest Friday afternoon/evening across far southwestern Nebraska.

- Below normal temperatures are forecast for Saturday through
Monday with highs generally in the 70s.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

H5 analysis this morning had a closed low over east central
Saskatchewan. A trough extended to the southeast into northern
Minnesota, then south into northern Arkansas. High pressure was
anchored over the Mojave Desert. Broad westerly flow extended
from the Pacific NW into the central and northern Plains. Across
the eastern CONUS, ridging extended from the Mid Atlantic
States north into central Quebec. At the surface, strong low
pressure was located over central Manitoba this afternoon. A
cold front extended to the east then south across Lake Michigan,
south into eastern Arkansas. A secondary, back door cold front
had pushed into most of western and north central Nebraska by 2
PM CT this afternoon. Currently this feature was generally along
Interstate 80 from Ogallala to North Platte. Winds immediately
behind the front were northerly while winds south of the front
were westerly or southwesterly. Temperatures as of 2 PM CT
ranged from 72 degrees at Gordon, to 88 degrees at Ogallala and
Imperial.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

The next 24 to 30 hours will be relatively tranquil across the
forecast area. The back door cold front will be forced south
into southern Kansas overnight as high pressure noses into the
forecast area from the northwest. Northerly winds behind the
front will gradually diminish overnight and with a dry airmass
behind the front lows will bottom out in the upper 40s to around
50 for most of the forecast area. Some middle 50s are expected
over far southwestern Nebraska, where winds will be slower to
diminish. The surface high will build into western Nebraska,
then central Kansas on Thursday. By afternoon, warmer air on the
western periphery of the high, will begin to push into western
and southwestern Nebraska. This will lead to highs in the lower
80s. Further east, highs will be in the middle to upper 70s. By
late afternoon/early evening, southerly winds will begin to
increase across western Nebraska on the back side of the exiting
high. Overnight, a nice H85 low level jet will form from in
western Kansas/eastern Colorado. This feature will nose into
northwestern Nebraska after 06z Friday. At the same time, there
are indications in the latest NAM12 soln, of increased mid level
warm air advection and instability (negative LI`s computed
above the H800 level) over the western Sandhills and
northwestern portions of the forecast area. The latest NAM12,
3KM NAM and GFS solns do develop some limited QPF in these areas
after 06z Friday, a result of elevated convection. With that in
mind, went ahead and expanded the slight chance pops in the
inherited forecast. Will cap pops around 20 percent since there
is limited support for this with the 12z HRRR and ARW and NSSL
WRF runs.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Warmer air will continue to push into southwestern Nebraska
Friday. On the leading edge of this warm air surge, a warm front
will become established across portions of central into north
central Nebraska. This boundary is most pronounced in the NAM 12
soln and shows up to a lesser degree in the GFS soln. SB CAPE`s
reach around 3000J/KG across southwestern into central Nebraska
Friday afternoon per the latest NAM12 and GFS solns. The
presence of plenty of CAPE, a limited afternoon CAP and a
frontal boundary, will probably lead to the development of
thunderstorms late Friday afternoon/evening. As for the severe
threat, there is plenty of deep layer shear to support supercell
storms. Given the degree of very steep mid level lapse rates,
large hail would be the favored severe hazard. However, INVOF
the warm front, there could be a tornado threat, given the low
level helicities forecasted in the NAM12 soln. ATTM, the latest
SWODY3 has a marginal risk in far SW Nebraska. Feel there is a
high probability for this risk to expand northeast into the
forecast area with the SWODY2, to be issued tonight. On the
heels of storms Friday night, another cold front will back into
the region. This will lead to cooler temps Saturday and Sunday
with highs in the 70s. The bulk of any storms/precipitation
chances should remain out west along the front ranges of
Colorado/Wyoming. There is a small possibility that some of this
waning convection may reach western and southwestern portions
of the forecast area, given the west northwesterly steering
winds. Temperatures will then trend higher, as ridging across
the western CONUS begins to break down and migrate east. By the
middle and end of next week, widespread 90s look probable based
on the latest NBM guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 622 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north
central Nebraska tonight through tomorrow evening. Winds are
expected to remain fairly calm through tomorrow afternoon across the
region, with the exception of north central Nebraska. Tomorrow
afternoon, winds will be strongest across north central Nebraska
along and east of a line roughly from KVTN to KBBW, with
predominantly northwest winds around 15 knots gusting to 25
knots.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Richie