314
FXUS64 KLCH 250758
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
258 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

High pressure will continue to dominate our weather pattern this
Memorial Day weekend. Weak but steady south to southwest flow will
continue to pull in the tropical airmass and high humidity.
Overhead, the high pressure will also suppress convection leading
to clear skies and maximizing our daytime heating. The
unseasonable warm temperatures will lead to highs in the low to
mid 90s. Monday will be the hottest day of the forecast period
with temperatures in the mid to upper 90s. Apparent temperatures
will soar above 100 degrees and will approach Heat Advisory
levels of 108 degrees.

Monday evening a diffuse cold front will push through the region
and bring a dry continental airmass. Leading to much nicer
conditions to start the extended forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Large mid to upper level troughs over the Western and Eastern U.S.
with weak ridging aloft over Mexico will keep a west northwest flow
aloft over the region Tuesday through Wednesday. This should allow
for a weak frontal boundary to move through the area Tuesday
afternoon. Expect another hot afternoon with highs in the lower to
mid 90s, with heat index values in the lower 100s. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms along and ahead of the frontal boundary. Slightly
cooler & drier air expected Tuesday night and Wednesday should bring
overnight lows back into the upper 60s to lower 70s and afternoon
highs in the upper 80s to near 90 on Wednesday.

For Thursday through Saturday, whatever`s left of the frontal
boundary expected to wash out, with southeast winds expected to
resume as surface high pressure prevails over the SE U.S. Weak upper
level disturbances in the northwest flow aloft over our region
likely to keep isolated to scattered afternoon showers and
thunderstorms, with blended guidance showing consistent 20-30% each
afternoon. Overnight lows near 70/lower 70s north of I-10, mid 70s
further south. Afternoon highs in the upper 80s to near 90.

08/DML

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1113 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Upper level BKN to OVC decks of stratus will prevail over
locations inland, north of I-10 with showers / storms weakening
over E`rn TX. Concurrently, MVFR conditions to prevail through
the overnight hours as the humid marine boundary layer continues
to usher in low level moisture creating a BKN to OVC deck beneath
dry air subsidence around 3kft. Winds will continue due southerly
into the morning hours. Northern sites (AEX) have potential to see
very brief IFR ceilings during the dawn hours. Patches of
periodic BR occurring across coastal locations and will persist
through sunrise. Thereafter ceilings will lift and break toward
VFR into the midday hours as southerly winds pickup by the early
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 252 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Surface high pressure continues to dominate our weather pattern.
On shore flow will continue for the next several days with winds
around 10 to 15 knots. Saturday night winds will increase
approaching 20 knots and a caution statement for small craft will
go into effect. Waves will increase with the winds reaching 6
feet Saturday and Sunday then decreasing to 4 feet on Monday.

No shower or thunderstorm activity is expected through the
holiday weekend.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  92  73  92  73 /  10   0   0  10
LCH  88  76  88  77 /   0   0   0  10
LFT  92  77  91  78 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  90  77  90  77 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...30