Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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203 FXUS64 KLCH 050426 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1126 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Wx map shows high pressure off the Southeast U.S. coast ridging across the Northern Gulf of Mexico, keeping southeast winds across the region. The afternoon MCS that moved through Central and South Central Louisiana is well east and mostly dissipated. Had on wind gust from a mesonet site on Toledo Bend near 56 mph, most other reports were in the 35 to 40 mph range. The outflow boundary also created a rather refreshing chance this evening, bringing down temperatures into the upper 60s to lower 70s. With the boundary dissipating, southeast winds will resume over the region, with temperatures in the lower to mid 70s for the remainder of the night. Updates to forecast were to show cooler evening temperatures with no precipitation. Next thunderstorm complex poised to move through the area by late morning/early afternoon Wednesday. 08/DML && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 340 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows high pressure centered off the Carolina coast ridging wwd over the sern CONUS, maintaining a moist srly low-level flow over the region. Water vapor imagery shows weak disturbances rounding weak troffing over the Great Lakes within a wrly flow aloft with mid/upper-level ridging now suppressed to the wrn Gulf. The first in these disturbances has fired off an MCS which is driving convection across mainly cntl LA at this time. The weakening trend seen earlier has come to an end with better destabilization and improving lapse rates aloft, and thus SPC issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for most of our LA area through 19L/01z. Damaging wind gusts are the primary threat, with even sub-severe gusts possibly uprooting trees given the very saturated soils across the watch area. Thereafter a persistent pattern lingers through at least tomorrow with yet another MCS progged to develop over the srn Plains, expected to trek serly into the wrn Gulf region, leading to elevated POPs beginning Wednesday morning across our nrn zones with a swd push through the day. In response, SPC has raised a marginal risk for the entire forecast area for Wednesday/Wednesday night. Likewise, WPC has introduced a marginal risk for excessive rainfall for essentially the entire area. Ridging aloft over nern Mexico/TX will try to spread its influence ewd for Thursday, although forecast soundings indicate somewhat limited capping at best, mainly over the wrn zones. Meanwhile less capping will combine with daytime heating to allow for scattered late morning/afternoon convection across the ern 1/2, especially lower Acadiana where deeper moisture is progged. With the more diurnally-driven/less dynamically-driven activity expected, SPC is keeping the area in just a general outlook for thunder at this time. Will have to see if any outlooks are drawn up for Thursday by WPC, especially given the antecedent conditions over the highest POPped areas. 25 && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Monday) Issued at 340 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 The long-term pattern remains mostly unchanged, which means wet and warm. Slow-moving boundaries will keep rain in the forecast while ridging aloft will keep the warm weather close by. At 500 mb, we will have northwest flow due to the high pressure over old Mexico. This high will extend a ridge across SETX and SWLA. The riding will create a general northwest flow that will guide the frontal boundaries that are expected to move across the region. At the surface high pressure off the east coast will keep our background winds from the south. The first will be sometime around Friday but it could move through late Thursday. Models do show a steep front, and strong convection will be a concern as this system moves through. This front will then stall near the coast, and in the mean time, the parade of systems will continue with another MCS moving across the region on Monday. For the rest of the week, sea breeze and daytime heating will lead to afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Since it is June, saying there are cooler temperatures in the forecast means high 80s instead of actually cool temperatures. The series of disturbances will also bring pulses of north winds and drier air. Early next week, the heat index values will be almost enjoyable in the high 90s. 14/Slaughter && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1123 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 MVFR ceilings are anticipated to redevelop early Wednesday and linger through sunrise. Another MCS is also expected to affect the region Wed with lower vis and ceilings along with gusty winds. Ahead of the incoming line of storms winds will be south to southeast. Winds may veer northwest for a brief period behind the MCS. && .MARINE... Issued at 340 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Caution headlines continue on most of the waters through tonight and into Wednesday. 25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 69 89 71 91 / 10 70 30 20 LCH 76 89 75 91 / 10 40 10 40 LFT 71 91 76 92 / 20 30 20 50 BPT 82 91 75 94 / 10 30 10 20 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...05