Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
620 FXUS64 KLCH 142117 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 417 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 325 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 High pressure will bring comfortable if a little warm weather to the region. Temperatures will be approaching the 90s on Wednesday as the clear skies will allow for maximum daytime heating. Thursday will be the main concern this forecast cycle will be another round of heavy showers and a significant risk of flash flooding. The WPC has placed us under a Moderate Risk (3/4) for Thursday. There is a possibility that pats of SE TX and, central and SWLA could be upgraded to a High Risk (4/4). Widespread 3 to 5 inches of rain are expected while some areas could see more 6 inches on Thursday. Multiple models have consistently shown a strong signal for flash flooding. Different factors are pointing us towards a significant event. With PWAT values a large concern as they will be approaching 2 inches across the region. Above the 90th percentile, in addition slow storm motion, around 20 knots, will allow for heavy rain to train over locations. In addition there is a low-end probability for severe weather with the same event. With all modes of severe weather being possible. Make sure to stay weather aware the next few days and keep a close eye on the forecast as the situation may change. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Monday) Issued at 325 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Uncertainty remains as to the evolution of the storm system Friday into Saturday on when the system finally moves out of the region. Flooding will remain the biggest concern, but strong to sever storms will also be possible. Thereafter, mid level ridging starts to push into the region with rising heights. This could also lead a dry period into early.middle portion of next week. Daytime highs will also push into the lower 90s each afternoon. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Earlier MVFR and BR/Patchy FG is gone across all TAF locales with VFR likely through the forecast cycle. Brief and/or patchy BR/FG is possible again Wed early morning, but confidence is low. Brief MVFR is also possible, but not likely. NW SFC winds around 10 kts will calm this evening and overnight. SFC winds will be light and variable Wed aftn. && .MARINE... Issued at 325 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Winds will shift northerly tonight then back east to southeast through the day Wednesday as high pressure quickly slides east. Onshore flow will then persist, strengthening slightly, through the end of the week. Exercise caution conditions will be possible at times. Shower and thunderstorm chances will return Thursday as another low pressure system approaches the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 59 88 64 85 / 0 0 0 40 LCH 64 89 69 83 / 0 0 0 60 LFT 66 90 69 87 / 0 0 0 40 BPT 64 90 70 84 / 0 0 10 70 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....78 AVIATION...78