203
FXUS64 KLZK 080541
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1241 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 127 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

SFC high pressure is moving over the state early this Fri
afternoon...with a mostly clear sky and warm conditions ongoing.
Dewpts continue to drop across the state...with dewpts in the 50s
and 60s. Temps have warmed into the 80s to low 90s. Due to the low
dewpts...heat index values have remained near or even just below
actual air temps.

The SFC high pressure will shift east for tonight into Sat...with
SRLY winds returning. Lows tonight into Sat morning will drop down
into the 60s to low 70s...with the dry air remaining. Moisture
levels will increase for Sat with the increasing SRLY flow. An upper
disturbance will move ESE over SRN MO...approaching NRN AR late
tonight into Sat morning. Some increasing POPs are forecast as a
result for this portion of AR as this disturbance moves overhead.
While remnant outflow from morning convection looks to drop south
Sat...chances for precip will drop considerably across central to
especially SRN sections. Even so...will need to keep an eye on this
and there may be some small potential for convection to fire along
this outflow further south that currently forecast.

There will be a break in the precip Sat afternoon...but chances
return Sat night through Sun as a cold front moves south into the
state. Convection chances will increase into central sections...but
the front may slow or stall by Sun afternoon...with SRN sections
potentially remaining dry through Sun afternoon. Chances for SVR WX
look to remain low with the activity Sat and Sun...but given late
spring/early summer...cannot rule out a few isolated strong...maybe
briefly SVR TSRA. The chances for convection look to persist into at
least the early part of the long term period as the front starts
pushing further south over time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 127 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

To begin the period, NW flow aloft will be over the area.
Additionally, surface high pressure will be east of the state as a
low pressure system tracks out of the Central Plains into the Great
Lakes region. This will bring the chance of rain across at least
northern and western locations...with rain making it south into
central and southern Arkansas possible. Multiple round of rain will
be possible under this NW flow until the pattern breaks down by
Wednesday. Calm and dry conditions are expected Wednesday night
through the rest of the period.

As of this forecast package, severe weather is expected to remain on
the low side...but not zero. Should any severe weather materialize,
damaging winds would be the main threat. QPF amounts will depend on
where rainfall sets up and tracks. For the most part, QPF amounts
will remain on the low side with northwestern and western Arkansas
likely seeing the most. These areas could expect to see up to half
an inch through the period...with lesser amounts elsewhere.

Temperatures are expected to be in the upper 70s to lower 90s.
Overnight lows are expected to drop into the upper 50s to upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Wl cont to monitor upstream convection that is expected to affect
portions of N AR later this mrng. Included TEMPO groups for brief
MVFR conds at KHRO and KBPK. Convection is expected to weaken
later Sat mrng, leaving a residual outflow bndry acrs the area.
Otherwise, VFR conds wl prevail with S/SW winds increasing towards
midday, with sustained speeds of 10 to 15 mph, along with higher
gusts. Another round of convection could work into N AR late in
the PD, but confidence is low at this point to include in the
fcst.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....73
AVIATION...44