658
FXUS64 KLZK 310815
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
315 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

CURRENTLY:

As of 3AM CDT, radar depicted the development of rain with a few
embedded thunderstorms increasing in coverage across central
Arkansas moving northwest as the activity initiates north of the
warm front and this activity is influenced by easterly winds and the
CCW motion around the sfc low pressure center located in
southeastern Oklahoma.

TODAY (FRIDAY):

An approaching upper lvl pronounced SWT over Oklahoma in tandem with
a sfc low pressure center across southeastern Oklahoma with an
attendant eastward extending warm front will slowly lift northward
into central Arkansas during the day on Friday. The location of the
sfc low pressure center and warm front across the state will be
critical in determining the locations with a higher conditional
risk for severe weather potential.

Locations north of the warm front will see mostly stratiform rain
with the outside possibility of a thunderstorm, but with suppressed
instability north of the warm front, severe weather potential will
be greatly reduced in this parameter space.

However, along and south of the warm front, especially in close
proximity to the sfc low pressure center a conditional threat for
severe weather will exist. The word conditional is strongly used
here because latest CAMS show meager instability, decent effective
SRH values, and ongoing rainfall which will assist in stabilizing
the atmosphere within this region. Despite these caveats, the
opportunity for a few severe thunderstorms nonetheless in this
parameter space will exist, but it will not be optimal for
widespread severe weather.

Expect along and south of the warm front the possibility of a few
strong to severe thunderstorms to develop with the main threats of a
few severe wind gusts, a possible tornado or two, and borderline
severe-sized hail (1-inch in diameter).

Latest model data has the warm front draped near the I-40 corridor
during Friday afternoon creating the opportunity for these
conditional severe weather hazards to be greatest across the
southern half of the state.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT:

The sfc low pressure center and attendant eastward extending warm
front and southward extending cold front progresses into the Natural
State. The low pressure center will track ENE across Arkansas during
the early morning hours on Saturday with the warm front finally
extending northward to near the Arkansas/Missouri border and the
cold front beginning to move into portions of northwestern Arkansas.
Expect rainfall and an isolated thunderstorm or two during the day
on Saturday; however with the overall system moving ENE rain chances
will begin to diminish from NW to SE across the state by Saturday
evening as the cold front begins to sweep across the state from
northwest to southeast.

A final threat that will need to be remembered over this period on
Friday and Saturday will be the threat of flash flooding within the
most efficient rainfall producing cells or cells that train over the
same location leading to high rainfall amounts in a short period of
time.

Temperatures over the short-term forecast period will be slightly
below normal on Friday as many locations will be experiencing
multiple rounds of rain and/or thunderstorms whereas on Saturday a
rebound of temperatures with respect to both low and high
temperatures will be position values near climatological normals for
this time of the year.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Guidance is not indicating any significant changes versus this time
last night and continues to show a progressive and unsettled pattern
for the mid south, at least at the onset. However, guidance does
remain steadfast in moving ridging over the region late in the
period for a return to generally dry but very warm conditions.

Period initiates with quasi-zonal flow in place over the region with
yet another shortwave trough over the central plains. Air mass over
the state will remain warm and humid with another round of diurnally
driven convection expected Sunday afternoon through early Monday as
the aforementioned short wave trough crosses the state. Some stronger
storms once again can not be excluded along with some localized
flooding but overall it does not appear to be a significant event as
this point in time. Additional weak impulses will ripple through the
flow through Tuesday night to support at least scattered convection.

Meanwhile, a much more significant trough will be dropping into the
northern plains through early Tuesday. Surface reflection will be
well north of the region (as in Manitoba) with a trailing cold front
just reaching the northwest corner of the state by Wednesday
morning.

Boundary will move through the state in the Wednesday/Wednesday
night time frame ushering in some relatively drier air but
temperatures will rise back into the upper 80s to lower 90s as upper
ridging begins to build over the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Expect shower and thunderstorm activity throughout the forecast
period from the early morning hours on Friday through the early
morning hours on Saturday. CIGS and VSBY over the majority of the
forecast period will drop to as low as IFR flight category. Low
level wind shear will be expected across the northern, western, and
central terminals including: KHRO, KBPK, KHOT, KADF, and KLIT which
will occur during Friday morning. Anticipate several complexes of
shower and thunderstorm activity which will impact the state over
the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     75  66  82  65 /  80  90  60  10
Camden AR         80  66  85  67 /  90  80  60  20
Harrison AR       72  63  79  62 /  90  80  30   0
Hot Springs AR    77  65  85  66 /  90  80  40  20
Little Rock   AR  77  68  85  69 /  90  80  50  20
Monticello AR     81  69  84  69 /  90  80  70  30
Mount Ida AR      76  64  85  65 /  90  70  30  10
Mountain Home AR  72  64  80  62 /  80  80  40   0
Newport AR        78  67  82  67 /  80  90  60  20
Pine Bluff AR     80  68  85  68 /  80  80  60  20
Russellville AR   75  66  85  66 /  90  80  30  10
Searcy AR         77  66  83  66 /  80  90  60  20
Stuttgart AR      79  69  83  69 /  80  90  60  20

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...74