Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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123 FXUS64 KLZK 311957 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 257 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 252 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Unsettled weather has returned to the Natural State over the past 24 hours. Several rounds of rain/embedded thunder have contd to affect the FA today. Along with the clouds and rainfall, a stationary fntl bndry was situated along the Highway 67/167 and I-30 corridor. This has resulted in quite the range of temps at mid aftn, with 70s and lower 80s common, with 60s noted over NW AR. One upper impulse is currently in the process of departing north AR, with lingering showers noted. A more potent upper system (MCV) was located ovr SW AR. Where cloud cover has thinned out, daytime heating is allowing sctd convection to form. A few of these storms could pulse up and possibly bring some gusty winds, we are not looking for organized severe storms into this evening. Once this aforementioned MCV moves out of the FA later tngt, PoPs wl be diminishing fm the west heading into early Sat. Expect patchy fog and low clouds to return late tngt into early Sat. Conds wl improve thereafter as W/NW winds return and allow the clouds to start eroding. THis wl be short-lived as another weather maker brings rain chcs back to the state on Sun. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday Night through next Friday) Issued at 252 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 More of the same as we enter the work week with additional shortwaves expected to move through the midsouth providing continued chances of shower and thunderstorm activity. With MCS season upon us, will need to monitor overnight activity Sunday night and possibly Monday night. Relief, for at least part of the state, is possible by mid week where long term models are indicating a strong Upper Ridge to build over the SW Conus. Modified the grids to better reflect this pattern with higher POPs across the NE half of the forecast area. Temperatures will generally be at or above seasonal normals during the day, and slightly milder than average at night due to the increased cloud cover and RH through the majority of the overnight periods. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1258 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Variety of flight conds wl cont into this evening as another MCV works into AR fm the SW. Most locations wl see MVFR/IFR ceilings for most of the aftn, with VFR conds confined to SE AR early on. Sctd convection wl cont to dvlp durg the aftn, especially to the north and east of the upper impulse. Bulk of rain chcs are fcst to diminish fm the west starting later this evening. Expect low clouds and patchy fog to form overnight, with IFR conds returning to most locations. W/SW winds on Sat mrng wl allow for allow for a slow improvement in flight conds late in the PD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 65 82 66 87 / 80 30 10 30 Camden AR 66 85 67 86 / 70 20 10 40 Harrison AR 63 80 62 84 / 50 20 0 30 Hot Springs AR 65 85 66 86 / 50 20 10 40 Little Rock AR 68 85 69 87 / 70 20 10 30 Monticello AR 68 85 69 87 / 80 30 20 40 Mount Ida AR 64 85 65 85 / 50 20 10 40 Mountain Home AR 63 80 62 86 / 70 20 10 20 Newport AR 67 83 67 87 / 90 40 10 30 Pine Bluff AR 68 85 68 86 / 80 30 20 40 Russellville AR 66 85 67 87 / 50 20 10 30 Searcy AR 65 83 66 87 / 80 30 10 30 Stuttgart AR 68 84 69 86 / 90 30 20 40 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....61 AVIATION...44