887
FXUS64 KLZK 021907
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
207 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Warm and humid conditions will remain in place across the region
through the short term portion of the forecast. Sfc analysis
doesn`t indicate much in the way of any distinguishable features
of interest.

Nearly zonal mid-level flow will be in place across much of the
southern US while ridging remains compressed to the southwest. A
series of H500 disturbances will approach the state in the mean
flow over the next couple of days. These impulses as well as any
residual boundaries from MCS activity will help influence the
development of TS activity across the area.

Much of the precip will likely be diurnally driven. Should severe
weather occur, damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall
would be the main concerns. Identifying the most likely corridors
of precip remains a challenge.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

An active weather pattern is expected through the first part of the
period. Surface high pressure will be situated just to the east and
southeast of the state as southerly flow supplies moisture into the
state around the high pressure. Aloft, a quasi-zonal pattern is
expected to set up allowing a couple of disturbances to track across
the area. By Thursday morning, the pattern is expected to break down
as a cold front passes through...bringing in high pressure. Calm and
dry conditions are expected Thursday and Friday before unsettled
weather returns by the weekend.

As of this forecast package, severe weather is expected to remain on
the low side...but not zero. Should any severe weather materialize
with any MCS`s...damaging winds would be the main threat. QPF will
depend on where rainfall sets up and tracks. For the most part, many
areas across the state could see one to two inches through Friday
with locally higher amounts possible. Highest QPF amounts are
expected across northern locations.

Temperatures are expected to be on the warmer side with highs in the
mid 80s to mid 90s. Overnight lows are expected to drop into the mid
60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Not expecting any precip through the afternoon/evening hours,
there will likely be an increase in coverage of RA/TS activity
from W-E by 03/12z. Afternoon CU will be in place today, it could
briefly provide cigs just below 3k ft at times. Expect more
widespread MVFR cigs by daybreak. Winds will be less than 10 kts,
generally out of the S-SE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     69  86  69  85 /   0  40  30  30
Camden AR         70  88  71  88 /  20  40  10  10
Harrison AR       66  82  67  83 /  20  50  40  30
Hot Springs AR    70  88  70  87 /  20  40  20  20
Little Rock   AR  72  88  73  89 /  10  40  20  20
Monticello AR     71  89  73  89 /   0  30  10  20
Mount Ida AR      69  86  69  85 /  20  40  20  20
Mountain Home AR  67  83  67  84 /  10  50  40  30
Newport AR        70  88  71  87 /   0  40  30  40
Pine Bluff AR     71  88  72  89 /   0  40  20  20
Russellville AR   71  86  71  87 /  20  40  30  20
Searcy AR         68  87  70  87 /   0  40  30  30
Stuttgart AR      72  88  73  88 /   0  40  20  20

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....73
AVIATION...67